Economic Analysis

Nuclear Waste or Gold?

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 22, 2002

Long time readers have been asking me to re-visit some of my old themes and recommendations. Today we are going to visit our old friends, The Three Amigos , to see what these historically accurate indicators have to tell us about the direction of the economy. Is it safe to get back in the water? I suggest a special way to invest in high yield bonds that you don't want to miss.

Economic Denial

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 15, 2002

Reader response to my prediction that we are in the Muddle Through Economy has been interesting. While most readers seem to agree, a few think I am being too pessimistic and we are poised for a boom and many of you think we are headed for a far worse economic scenario.

Bull Market or Gloom and Doom?

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 8, 2002

My theme for the last few weeks has been that we are in the Muddle Through Economy -not much downside but not much upside. The data this week reinforces my point. Today we will look at the evidence that continues to mount.

The GDP Waltz

Thoughts from the Frontline

February 1, 2002

What an amazing week. The data deluge as I came back into the office from Florida was staggering, and I write this letter late at night after a day of reading and thinking.

The Muddle Through Economy

Thoughts from the Frontline

January 25, 2002

The task I face every week as I begin this column is to interpret the tea leaves so we can get some glimpse into the future of the economy, and thereby get an idea of how to invest our hard-earned money. In theory, the direction of the economy (both local and global) will have a direct influence on stocks, bonds and other investments.

Blues Brothers: Enron and Cisco

Thoughts from the Frontline

January 18, 2002

Last week we looked at the continuing evidence of deflation, which is my primary concern when I analyze the future direction of the markets.

Simple Deflation

Thoughts from the Frontline

January 11, 2002

Last week's 2002 Forecast laid out the clear cut case that deflation would be the dominant economic force in the first part of 2002. I took pains not to use any recent data, trying to make the case on long-term economic patterns. I have always felt it is dangerous to use weekly data to make long-term forecasts.

2002 Economic Forecast

Thoughts from the Frontline

January 4, 2002

My annual predictions letters for the last two years have been easy to write, and with one glaring exception, have been generally on target. I start with a basic premise - one key economic factor -- and work out from there. I look for the one thing I believe is going to affect the economy more than anything else in the coming year. If I am wrong on my basic premise, then everything else is likely to be wrong.

One More for the Road

Thoughts from the Frontline

December 7, 2001

A lot of data has come out this week. I slice and dice it for you to help us figure out whether the economy is truly turning up, or is this just a head fake from the markets? Plus, we look at what some are calling a slam dunk investment. I agree it is as close as it comes to being a lock.

Market Insanity

Thoughts from the Frontline

November 30, 2001

Wow! What a data downpour the last few days! We are going to cover Warren Buffett, junk bonds, Enron, deflation, corporate accounting hank-panky, and the wildest markets I can remember. Let's jump in and see where we end up.