Thoughts from the Frontline

A Graphic Presentation

By John Mauldin

May 5, 2012

Choose your language

April Employment
A Graphic Review of the Strategic Investment Conference
A Little Over 31 Years
New York, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Austin

The US employment numbers came out this morning, and they were disappointing. But disappointing does not begin to describe the situation I read about today in Europe. I have just finished up with my conference in Carlsbad, California and am getting back to the room late. I have to get up in a few hours (4 AM is rather obscene) to fly to Tulsa to see my daughter graduate from university, but wanted to drop you a note as I normally do on Friday night. But given the time and the need for some sleep, tonight I will draw your attention to the writing of a few friends and some of the more interesting charts I saw at the conference. It will be a shorter letter than usual, but we will uncover a few real nuggets; and next week I will be back to a more normal writing schedule.

On May 22 I will be doing a webinar with my conference co-host, Jon Sundt of Altegris Investments, where we will talk about what we heard at the conference and some of the material I covered in my speech. This webinar will be a great way for those not able to attend the SIC conference to get a sense of its scope and depth. Because of the nature of the material, and due to SEC regulations, we will need to limit the webinar to accredited investors. If you have already registered at my Accredited Investor website, you should be getting an invitation. If you have not registered and would like to listen in, you can go to www.mauldincircle.com/ and sign up. The call will be at 11 AM Central Time. (In this regard, I am president and a registered representative of Millennium Wave Securities, LLC, member FINRA.)

Also, I will be in Atlanta May 23 (details at the end of the letter). And now for some "nugget hunting."

April Employment

A few hours after the employment numbers are released, I always get a rather thorough analysis from Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood of The Liscio Report (www.theliscioreport.com). Philippa gave me permission to share this with you just this once. While it may be more detail than you are used to, it will help give you a perspective on how much data is actually tracked. I think Philippa and Doug are…

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8 comments

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Comments

David Dukes

May 7, 2012, 9:40 a.m.

The numbers are interesting, but econimic predictions are even worse than the weather forecast.  We never know for sure what will take the market up or down next. Tlhe elections in France and Greece are two dark clouds.  Will they bring some sanity to our congress or more stupidity? 

Your daughter writes well.  As for her thyroid, it appears some patients do better on the natural since it contains t3 and t4 while the synthetic has only one and some bodies cannot make the other one.  WWW.PEOPLESPHARMACY.COM have written about this problem.  Yours and the Graedon’s newsletters are the only two I find time to read regularly.  Best wishes on her getting the levels right.

Just got this Nook tablet.  It is great for reading your newsletters because I don’t like reading sitting at my laptop and I nolonger have to print it .  Cannot say if I like posting this way, but it may me get my thoughts into fewer words.

Thanks. Wes

John Christiansen

May 6, 2012, 1:35 p.m.

On another point, companies have chosen to eliminate many training programs for free (to them) “internships” because of the excess labor pool.  Perhaps a program of mentoring by retired workers could be established and companies could actually pay their interns!  This might not raise the wage average by much, but it would keep the transition of generational power and wealth more civil and humane.  Meanwhile the Gen-X, Y and millenium workers are shouldering the burdens of less help and training, left to fend for themselves in an increasingly competitive environment, resenting the retiring bulge they see coming.

John Christiansen

May 6, 2012, 1:33 p.m.

Given boomers are retiring in massive numbers (either through layoffs, buyouts or actually retiring), what effect does this have on recent employment analyses?  The boomers started to hit 62 yo in 2008 and could have started their SSI benefits.  Are the continuing “retirements ” impacting the unemployment numbers, keeping them statistically higher than actual?

Jeff Martin

May 5, 2012, 9:18 p.m.

Hi John,

First, as someone that has lived without a thyroid for 12 years, please tell Melissa it’s not that bad.  Just keep exercising because you really do burn fewer calories…or so it seems. She also has a sharp wit and a writing style to match…a good combination.
Second…not to worry about the labor market.  The housing market is staging a significant and spectacular recovery.  The data has not appeared yet but I can tell you, as a mortgage banker for over 20 years, it’s as busy as it’s been in the last 10 years.  Everyone in my area (Long Island, NY) is swamped with business…and it’s 75% purchases.  The sales are in every price range from 300K to 3Mil. Once housing starts pick up and construction jobs return, we will have liftoff. It’s not far away.

Have faith, my friend.  Housing took us down and housing will bring us back.

Jeff Martin
East Northport NY

David Oldham

May 5, 2012, 7:31 p.m.

“Somehow, and maybe this is just me being Dad, I think she will have a career as a writer”.

Well done Melissa and I second your dad’s confidence in you. The piece flowed beautifully and held my attention.

Best wishes to you from uk. We are pulling for you across the pond.

Lee Irvine

May 5, 2012, 6:13 p.m.

When strangers ask me what I do, I reply:” I spend most of my time minding my own business.”

Willis Smith

May 5, 2012, 5:38 p.m.

All the news is about why Obama isn’t creating jobs.  From David Rosenberg’s chart it is clear that there can be no growth in consumer spending (70% of GDP) without meaningful increases in wages.
Industry isn’t going to spend except for productivity increases (which eliminates jobs) unless they see consumer spending increasing.  Exports cannot grow much with Europe and China slowing down.  Government jobs at all levels are in decline.  Maybe people think that Lazy Fairy economics will solve the problem by Obama waving a magic wand.

Cary Honganen

May 5, 2012, 5:31 p.m.

Of all the charts presented in your newsletter this week, I enjoyed plotting a chart through your daughter’s blog the most. Refreshing. No doubt in my mind she will do big things as a writer!
God bless you both.
Cary

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