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    Thoughts From the Frontline, May 2003

    The Muddle Through Economy

    May 30, 2003

    This week we will visit one of my main themes for the last two years: the Muddle Through Economy. This is a summary (and first draft) chapter on the topic from my book-in-progress. I also, with a great deal of trepidation, set out my thoughts on the US economy for the rest of the decade. Making predictions is a scary thing.

    (To those who sent in book title suggestions, we are slowly sifting through the almost 1,000 book titles that were submitted. In a few weeks, I will narrow them down to...

    The Trend is Your Friend

    May 24, 2003

    This week we look at trends and how to make them your friend. Whether its stocks, the dollar or interest rates, getting the trend right is a cornerstone of successful investing.

    I finish up this week's letter while flying back from DC. On Monday, I was invited to testify before the Congressional sub-committee which is looking into hedge funds and the role they play in the markets. My testimony centered upon my belief that hedge funds should be made available to all investors and my...

    Presupposing Deflation

    May 17, 2003

    The topic du jour is deflation. I must have read 40 or so treatises on the deflation debate this week alone. Some are rather lengthy and boring (some economists must intentionally try to be obscure and hard to read - you can't be that bad without really trying), and others are quite thought-provoking. I have written at length on deflation in the past, but from the volume of questions I am getting, it seems time to charge once more into the breech. I will try to come at the debate from a rather...

    King Dollar Meets the Guillotine

    May 9, 2003

    This week we take a look at the dollar and global trade imbalances. I will use the draft chapter from my book-in-progress on the topic.

    I need to thank so many of you for your book title suggestions. We have had almost 1,000 proposed titles come in over the last two weeks. Some of you put in a great deal of thought, did cover designs and detailed analysis. I wish I could write each one of you personally, but I need to keep writing on the book. I want to finish this month.

    Let's go...