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    Thoughts From the Frontline, April 2004

    The Yield Curve,  Part 7

    April 30, 2004

    This week we look at the probability of a future recession raining on the current economic parade, looking at two indicators which offer insight into our future. I further explore the interest rate environment and the risks associated with Fed policy. There is a lot to cover, and it should be interesting reading.

    But first, let me modestly note that my book, Bull's Eye Investing , debuted this week at #13 on the New York Times Miscellaneous List (investment, business and how to books) and...

    Will They Raise or Will They Stay?

    April 23, 2004

    With the theme song (circa 1979) from The Clash as our background music - Should I Stay or Should I Go? - we explore whether the Fed will raise interest rates this summer or postpone any actions until after the election. We look at a prediction by bond maven Jim Bianco, whose track record on these matters is quite good. He believes the Fed may raise rates as early as the June meeting. This seemingly arcane topic has important implications for your portfolio and the economy. It should make for...

    Bull’s Eye Investing

    April 16, 2004

    This week, I am going to depart from the regular format, as my book, "Bull's Eye Investing: Targeting Real Returns in a Smoke and Mirrors Market" is in the trucks on the way to a bookstore near you, as well as Amazon.com and Barnes and Noble.com. I have arranged for a nice 30% discount on the book for you courtesy of Barnes and Noble.com, a different and excellent source for bulk orders and I launch a special letter just for readers of my book.

    Employment Games and Other Silly Statistics

    April 9, 2004

    This week we take a look at what value really means, and I offer a few thoughts on the recent employment numbers. They may not be what you think.

    I am taking a little R&R this weekend, and have asked my friend Lynn Carpenter who is the editor of the Fleet Street Letter and The Optionist to give us her thoughts on value investing. It is a wise and witty essay, and I commend it to you.

    The Coming Generational Storm

    April 2, 2004

    Today, we are going to look at a very important study by the always insightful James Montier on the Echo Bubble? Can we look at past bubbles and see a pattern? But first, we are going to look at a (frankly disturbing) new book, which I am going to encourage you to get and read.

    "In 2030, as 77 million baby boomers hobble into old age, walkers will outnumber strollers; there will be twice as many retirees as there are today but only 18 percent more workers. How will America handle this...