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Thoughts From the Frontline, April 2007

The Last Bear Standing

April 27, 2007

This week we look at the growing disconnect between the US economy and the stock markets. One is slowing and the other is exploding to the upside. One of my mentors once said that it is the duty of the markets to prove the most-possible people wrong. So far, I am clearly in the wrong category. We will look at some explanations as to why, ponder if this can continue, and more. (I will conclude the letter I promised last week in next week's letter. There were still a few details I needed...

What? Me Worry?

April 20, 2007

This week I am in La Jolla for my annual Strategic Investment Conference, co-hosted by my partners Altegris Investments. This week's letter is the basis for the speech I will be giving Saturday afternoon on a few of the items in my long-term worry closet.

It will come as no surprise to this audience that there are a few things that worry me. I often write about problems in the markets. Subprime mortgage contagion, earnings shortfalls, a slowdown in consumer spending are all on my...

What Does a Dollar of Debt Get You?

April 13, 2007

This weekend I am in La Jolla at good friend Rob Arnott's conference. Princeton Professor Burton Malkiel, of Random Walk fame, will be one of the luminaries at the annual Research Affiliates Advisory Panel. So, with that thought in mind, this week we take a seemingly random walk through the data to see if we can discern a trend. How much debt does it take to grow GDP? You probably missed it, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics gives us data that contradicts the recent labor numbers. Why...