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    Thoughts From the Frontline, June 2010

    The Risk of Recession

    June 25, 2010

    We are halfway through the year (where did the time go?) and it is time to make some predictions about the last half of the year. This week we look at what the leading indicators are telling us, size up a new indicator, drop in on banking data, and do a whole lot more.

    Quickly, I will be on Larry Kudlow's show next Tuesday, which is at 7 pm Eastern. Larry has promised that we will spend some quality time on some of the current issues facing us. See you there! And now, let's jump in.

    I am on...

    Be Careful for What You Wish

    June 18, 2010

    "Everyone" is upset with the level of fiscal deficits being run by nearly every developed country. And with much justification. The levels of fiscal deficits are unsustainable and threaten to bring many countries to the desperate situation that Greece now finds itself in. We must balance the budget is the cry of fiscal conservatives. But there are unseen consequences in moving both too fast or too slow in the effort to get the deficits under control. Today we look at them as we explore what a...

    The Frog in the Frying Pan

    June 11, 2010

    Tonight I am in Venice, but I have arranged for a special edition of Thoughts from the Frontline, written by Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception, a research firm in London. I have been corresponding with Jonathan for some time, and we have had some solid, and lately quite frequent, conversations. I am very impressed with this young man, whose perceptions and insights I find quite thoughtful. We are working hard together to finish a book that will be called The End Game, which we hope to...

    There’s a Slow Train Coming

    June 4, 2010

    Sometimes I feel so low-down and disgusted
    Can't help but wonder what's happenin' to my companions,
    Are they lost or are they found, have they counted the cost it'll take to bring down
    All their earthly principles they're gonna have to abandon?
    There's a slow, slow train comin' up around the bend.

    - Bob Dylan

    The question before the jury is a simple one, but the answer is complex. Is the US in a "V"-shaped recovery? Are we returning to the old normal? A great deal hinges on the answer, and this...