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    Thoughts From the Frontline, November 2010

    Recessions Are on the Margin

    November 26, 2010

    I've got to admit it's getting better
    A little better all the time
    I have to admit it's getting better
    It's getting better since you've been mine
    Getting so much better all the time

    - John Lennon / Paul McCartney, Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band

    And the data out over the last few weeks tells us it is getting better. Does this take us out of the double-dip woods, even as the Fed is lowering its forecast? And what is a recession? Yes, we all know it’s when...

    O Deflation, Where Is Thy Sting?

    November 19, 2010

    The CPI was out this week, and it showed a continued drop in inflation. There were those who immediately pointed out that this vindicated the Fed’s move to QE2. We have to get ahead of this deflation thing, don’t we? Well, maybe, depending on how you measure inflation/deflation. This week we look deep into the BLS website on inflation to see just exactly what it is we are measuring, and then take a walk down Nostalgia Lane. But first we look at what I think we can call...

    First, Let’s Lower the Bar

    November 12, 2010

    China’s currency is rising ever so slowly against the dollar. But is that hurting China? We will look at a very interesting chart and some research. And then we’ll gain some more insight into why the employment numbers seemed to surprise. I guess if you lower the bar, it’s easier to jump over. I also deal with the pushback from last week’s Outside the Box! And Ireland is on my radar. There is a lot to cover, so let’s jump in.

    I start this week’s letter on a flight...

    Thoughts on Liquidity Traps

    November 5, 2010

    I am in London finishing my new book, The End Game, which will be out after the first of the year, as soon as Wiley can make it happen. Working with my co-author, Jonathan Tepper, we are making good progress. We intend to quit (a book like this is never finished) tomorrow afternoon.

    I am going to beg off from personally writing a letter this week, but will give you something even better. Dr. Lacy Hunt offers us a few cogent thoughts on the unemployment numbers. The headline...