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    Thoughts From the Frontline, February 2011

    When Irish Eyes Are Voting

    February 26, 2011

    When Irish eyes are smiling,
    Sure, 'tis like the morn in Spring.
    In the lilt of Irish laughter
    You can hear the angels sing.
    When Irish hearts are happy,
    All the world seems bright and gay.
    And when Irish eyes are smiling,
    Sure, they steal your heart away.

    Just when I’ve begun saying it’s safe to get back in the water, we get some shark sightings. They are a still a long ways off, but we need to keep our eyes on the deep waters and stay close to shore. This week we will look at...

    A Random Walk Around the Frontlines

    February 19, 2011

    I am on yet another plane and writing, and I’ll finish this letter in Phoenix. As I start, I am not sure of a theme for this week’s letter, so (with a tip of the hat to my friend Burton Malkiel, who I will see at Rob Arnott’s conference in a few months), today we do a Random Walk Around the Frontlines, surveying what’s going on in the world. We’ll start with the Fed and interest rates, look at inflation, and see how far we get. And I might get a little controversial, but long-time...

    The Future of Public Debt

    February 11, 2011

    This week I find myself in Bangkok, and I must admit to enjoying the experience a great deal, so much so that I am going to preview a portion of my coming book, Endgame, so that I can go back out and play tourist. Next week I get back to my more or less regular schedule, but I think you will enjoy this first portion of chapter six, where we look at an important paper from the Bank of International Settlements on “The Future of Public Debt.” It is not a pretty one. We are watching...

    An Excerpt from Endgame

    February 4, 2011

    "My best guess is that we’ll have a continued recovery, but it won’t feel terrific. Even though technically we’ll be in recovery and the economy will be growing, unemployment will still be high for a while and that means that a lot of people will be under financial stress."

    — Benjamin Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve in a Q&A at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

    Tonight (Thursday) I am flying to Thailand and will “lose” my normal Friday...