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    Thoughts From the Frontline, August 2011

    The End of the World, Part 1

    August 27, 2011

    Fine, then. Uh oh, overflow, population, common food, but it'll do to

    Save yourself, serve yourself. World serves its own needs,
    listen to your heart bleed – dummy with the rapture and
    the revered and the right, right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam,

    fight, bright light, feeling pretty psyched.

    It's the end of the world as we know it.
    It's the end of the world as we know it.
    It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

    R.E.M. song from 1987

    ...

    The Recession of 2011?

    August 20, 2011

    The data this week was just ugly. Even the uptick in the leading economic indicators, seized upon by so many talking heads, must have a large asterisk beside it. This week we look at the increasing probability that we are headed for recession, and the follow-on implications. Then I take a perilous and speculative journey into the realm of the political, commenting on Texas (and my) Governor Rick Perry’s rather interesting comments about the Fed and Ben Bernanke. There is a lot to...

    The Beginning of the Endgame

    August 13, 2011

    I came away from Maine, and meeting with some of the most astute economists in the world, with a series of impressions that will be the core of this week’s letter. On Friday night, S&P downgraded US debt, and of course I need to comment on that. But as we talked the next two days and into the nights, I came increasingly to the opinion that this is indeed the Beginning of the Endgame. I must admit it has come about faster than I thought. But that is the nature of these things. And...

    The Case for Going Global Is Stronger Than Ever

    August 5, 2011

    As will be clear below, I had finished an earlier version of this week’s e-letter, but the events of the last few minutes require a few paragraphs. As I write at the end of the letter, Bloomberg kept their satellite truck here in Maine, as they had got advance warning of the downgrade by S&P of US debt and wanted to interview a number of the economists here, including your humble analyst. I can’t rewrite the letter at this late hour, but will send you additional comments on Monday. And you can...