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    Thoughts From the Frontline, March 2013

    You Can’t Be Serious

    March 27, 2013

    I admit to being surprised by Cyprus. Oh, not the banking crisis or the sovereign debt crisis or the fact that its banks were eight times larger than the country itself or even the fact that the banks were bloated with Greek debt that had been written down. I wrote about all that a long time ago. What surprised me was that all the above was apparently a surprise to European leaders.

    While there is much to not like about what European leaders have done since the onset of their crisis some...

    Will the Real Unemployed Please Raise Your Hands?

    March 20, 2013

    This week’s letter will be a very short part of a book I am writing with Bill Dunkelberg (the Chief Economist of the National Federation of Independent Businesses) on the future of employment. It has taken longer to write than I initially anticipated, for a host of reasons, chief among which is that the future is not as obvious as I originally thought. Diving into the data has brought a few surprises. It doesn’t help that I have (probably to the frustration of Dunk, although he is way too...

    Argentina on Sale

    March 13, 2013

    When I was younger, so much younger than today,
    I never needed anybody's help in any way.
    But now these days are gone, I'm not so self assured,
    Now I find I've changed my mind and opened up the doors.

    – John Lennon, the Beatles

    (From Cafayate, Argentina) There are some who worry whether the path that Argentina has taken to monetary ruin on multiple occasions (and that it seems intent on taking again) is one that the US may also find itself on. That worry has crossed my mind a few...

    An Infinite Amount of Money

    March 6, 2013

    The three major blocs of the developed world are careening toward a debt-fueled denouement that will play out over years rather than in a single moment. And contrary to some opinion, there is no certain ending. There are multiple paths still available to Europe and especially the US, though admittedly none of them are bright and carefree. There are very few paths available to Japan, as they have skipped too far down the yellow brick road of debt. None of Japan’s remaining paths have good...