Thoughts From the Frontline, January 2014

Forecast 2014: The CAPEs of Hope

January 25, 2014

"Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences."

– Robert Louis Stevenson

Forecast 2014: “Mark Twain!”

January 18, 2014

Piloting on the Mississippi River was not work to me; it was play — delightful play, vigorous play, adventurous play – and I loved it…

– Mark Twain

In the 1850s, flat-bottom paddlewheel steamboats coursed up and down the mighty Mississippi, opening up the Midwest to trade and travel. But it was treacherous travel. The current was constantly shifting the sandbars underneath the placid, smoothly rolling surface of the river. What was sufficient depth one week on a stretch of the river might...

Forecast 2014: The Killer D’s

January 12, 2014

It seems I'm in a constant dialogue about the markets and the economy everywhere I go. Comes with the territory. Everyone wants to have some idea of what the future holds and how they can shape their own personal version of the future within the Big Picture. This weekly letter is a large part of that dialogue, and it's one that I get to share directly with you. Last week we started a conversation looking at what I think is the most positive and dynamic aspect of our collective future: The...

Forecast 2014: The Human Transformation Revolution

January 4, 2014

It is that time of the year when we peer into our darkened crystal balls in hopes of seeing portents of the future in the shadowy mists. This year I see three distinct wisps of vapor coalescing in the coming years. Each deserves its own treatment, so this year the annual forecast issue will in fact be three separate weekly pieces.

The final letter of the series will discuss what I see as potentially developing in the markets this year, but such prognostication has to be framed within the...