Thoughts From the Frontline, May 2014

Looking at the Middle Kingdom with Fresh Eyes

May 31, 2014

I am writing this introductory note from London during a layover on my way to Rome, and I’ll append a personal ending tonight after I finally make my way back from dinner to the hotel.

A Bubble in Complacency

May 25, 2014

Notes from SIC 2014

I and many others are still trying to digest the massive amount of useful and original information that was offered at last week’s Strategic Investment Conference. In this week’s letter I want to recap some of what I learned but do so in a little different manner. I find it quite instructive to listen to and read what other people have to say about their takeaways from the conference. I have come across several very good summaries and reviews that I am going to excerpt...

Special Updates from the Strategic Investment Conference: Day 3

May 18, 2014

By Worth Wray

Good morning from 30,000 feet, somewhere over the great American West!

I admit to being a little overwhelmed as I write to you on my way home from the Strategic Investment Conference. After three days with two dozen of the finest investors, economists, and political scientists anywhere in the English-speaking world, it is going to take me weeks to think through the real-world implications of all I have learned.

Special Updates from the Strategic Investment Conference: Day 2

May 16, 2014

By Worth Wray

Hello again from the Strategic Investment Conference in San Diego, California!

Special Updates from the Strategic Investment Conference: Day 1

May 15, 2014

By Worth Wray

Good morning from sunny San Diego, California!

As the sun rises on the second day of the Strategic Investment Conference, I am absolutely blown away. John and Altegris put on an amazing show, and this is simply unlike any investment conference I have ever attended.

Are Valuations Really Too High?

May 10, 2014

The older I get and the more I research and study, the more convinced I become that one of the more important traits of a good investor or businessman is not simply to come up with the right answer but to be able to ask the right question. The questions we ask often reveal the biases in our thinking, and we are all prone to what behavioral psychologists call confirmation bias: we tend to look for (and thus to see, and to ask about) things that confirm our current thinking.

A Yen for a Mortgage

May 3, 2014

For some time I have been saying that I was going to close the mortgage on my new apartment and then hedge it in yen. I promised to tell you the story, including what type of loan I got and how I am doing the hedge. This week I was finally able to pull the trigger. This topic will also let us re-examine why I think the Japanese yen is a screaming short. I am going to make this a shorter letter, as Amsterdam is calling, and it is a beautiful day. This is not a big think piece, but I think many...