Thoughts from the Frontline

As the Walrus Said

June 28, 2002

"The time has come," the Walrus said, "to talk of many things." This week we talk about whether we are in a housing bubble, look at stock and bond market directions, the problems with the dollar and much more. It is that semi-annual time when I make predictions (which is the term for educated guess), and then watch to see what actually occurs.

This week I begin with a look at the housing market. I probably get more questions on housing and real estate than on any topic, other than stocks. I am going to try and do a quick analysis, and then let that be the jumping off point for my economic predictions.

There has been much written about the fact that we are in a potential housing bubble. Typical of the concern is that voiced by Business Week: "Call it the double bubble. A housing bubble may be developing--right behind the Nasdaq bubble.....In fact, falling equities have led many well-heeled investors to shift money into residential real estate. Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance, which predicted the Nasdaq crash a year before it happened, now…

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