Thoughts from the Frontline

Daddy’s Home

June 23, 2012

Choose your language

I have often said that when someone is appointed to be a member of the Federal Reserve, they are taken into a back room and given a complete DNA change. They simply are not like you and me once they step out of that room, with the exception of Fisher and Lacker and a few colleagues who seem to be able to resist the infection. This week we will look at the recent action of the Fed and use that as a springboard to think about how effective Fed policy can be in an age of deleveraging. And if there is time, we simply must look at Europe. I started this letter in Texas and will finish it this morning in Spain.

But first, and quickly, most of you are aware of my annual Strategic Investment Conference, co-sponsored with my partner, Altegris, which we held last month. This year's David Rosenberg (and many attendees!) said this was the best conference ever, featuring a lineup of world-class economic and financial leaders. Our very enthusiastic attendees created a room full of energy that the speakers seemed to feed off of, and everyone brought their "A" game. It really was quite special. And now we have the videos.

For those of you who are members of my special program for accredited investors, called the Mauldin Circle, you can access the conference videos by going to the "My Information" section at the bottom of your personal home page, when you log into www.altegris.com. I can't think of a better way to sharpen your investment outlook than to partake of some of the best minds in the world, including Dr. Lacy Hunt, Niall Ferguson, David Rosenberg, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mohamed El-Erian … and even your humble analyst.

In order to view the videos, you must be a member of the Mauldin Circle. This program has replaced our Accredited Investor Newsletter Program. My partner Altegris and I have worked hard to enhance the program, which now includes access to webinars, conferences, special events, videos, accredited newsletters, and presentations featuring alternative investment managers and other thought leaders and influencers.

The good news is that this program is completely free. The only restriction is that, because of securities regulations, you have to register and be vetted by one of my trusted partners, which in the United States is Altegris, before you can be added to the subscriber roster. This will be a quite painless process (I promise). Once you register, an Altegris representative will call you to provide access to the videos, presentations, and summaries from selected speakers featured at our 2012 Strategic Investment Conference.

Click here to initiate your membership in our exclusive Mauldin Experience Program. After you have talked with the Altegris representative, you'll be able to view the first set of five videos, featuring Dr. Lacy Hunt, Jeffrey Gundlach, Niall Ferguson, David Rosenberg, and Mohamed El-Erian. We will have the rest of the conference lineup for you in a few weeks. And now, let's scrutinize the Fed.

Daddy's Home

This week the FOMC of the Federal Reserve announced that they would extend Operation Twist through the end of the year by buying $267 billion in longer-dated bonds while selling shorter-dated bonds. The idea is to lower the interest rate of the longer bonds, which in turn is supposed to lower interest rates for borrowers on mortgages, cars, and business loans. The only dissenting vote was from Jeffrey Lacker (Federal Reserve…

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Comments

Brendan Dornan

June 25, 2012, 6:43 p.m.

“Note: a negative yield curve does not have the same predictive power in other economies.”

It’s not abnormal to find conflicting studies, but would appreciate it if you could cite this study, as it runs counter to at least this study on emerging markets.

“THE YIELD CURVE AS A PREDICTOR AND EMERGING ECONOMIES”
by Arnaud Mehl ECB Workpapager no 691 November 2006
 
“The paper finds that the domestic yield curve has in-sample information content in emerging economies, even after controlling for inflation and growth persistence, at both short and long forecast horizons.” Mehl (2006)

For an out of sample, I wrote last year the Brazilian and Indian yield curves inverted, accurately forecasting sinking currencies.

Currently, the Australian yield curve is inverted at the short end, which combined with a domestic housing bubble and a dependency on an imploding China bubble, bodes ill for both the currency and the economy.

http://historysquared.com/2012/06/21/yield-curve-in-australia-portends-trouble-for-australia-as-it-did-for-india-and-brazil/

Spiro Vassilopoulos

June 24, 2012, 1:27 a.m.

You are correct to be worried about AA merging with US Airways.

I am/was a 25+ years Continental One Pass (almost) “lifer” - that’s the status of 1,000,000 air miles travelled.  Well, guess what?  As soon as United and Continental merged all of Continental’s people where sent to THE BACK OF THE BUS.  Thanks a bunch United.

Willis Smith

June 23, 2012, 10:35 p.m.

The least worst solution to the Euro problem is for Germany and perhaps the Netherlands to withdraw from it.  This would result in a DM and a Guilder that would be perhaps 30% higher in value than the Euro.  Yes, it would have a serious impact on German exports, but the collapse of the Euro would too.  The remaining countries in the Euro would then have a fighting chance of increasing their competitive vis-a-vis the Germans and Dutch.

Alasdair Carmichael

June 23, 2012, 10:07 p.m.

As always a stimulating read.
It seems to me the FED can carry on with “Operation Twist” all that it wants, but if the banks still insist on sitting on $1.6 trillion excess deposits over those that are required the low interest rates are of no use as the money is not getting into the economy. Federal Reserve of St Louis chart - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=EXCRESNS

Just got back from week in Tuscany (Cetona also in Province of Siena)- it would be a crime to ignore the Tuscan grape!

jack goldman

June 23, 2012, 7:58 p.m.

Demographics are the issue. Too many seniors and too slow an economy. Time to triage. Cap all pensions at $3000 per person, $6,000 per household. That’s enough. If two public school teachers have a $3,000 each, $6,000 house hold income they don’t need and don’t get Social Security or any other welfare from the Feds. Let’s get real. There are too many over paid people, often government employees or subsidized government businesses (GM, Goldman Sachs) and too many under paid people like me Dad who gets $700 a month at age 78. That’s too low. Time to equalize life after age 66 and bring down the top and bring up the bottom. It’s called social justice.