Thoughts from the Frontline

It’s All About Jobs

By John Mauldin

April 7, 2012

Choose your language

Just Trying to Keep Up
Participating in the Labor Force
Some Good News on Employment
San Francisco, Denver, Austin, Philadelphia, Washington DC, Fort Lauderdale, etc.

Today's employment numbers were decidedly soft, but the unemployment rate went down anyway, and that is about the best you can say. And this being a holiday weekend, it provides us an opportunity to look deep into the employment numbers, while we put off thinking about Spain for at least a week. And who knew that being an unmarried Asian-American in the US was a risk for unemployment? Plus a few other interesting items will make for an interesting letter.

Just Trying to Keep Up

March saw "only" 120,000 jobs created. Expectations were for 200,000 new jobs. It wasn't all that long ago that any positive number would have been seen as good, but with the last six months averaging 200,000 jobs, this was disappointing. It gives force to the worry that once again we could see the employment numbers get soft during the spring and summer. And adding to interest in the…

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3 comments

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Comments

robert Gilroy

April 7, 2012, 2:10 p.m.

Consider how you might increase your exposure to the ordinary citizen who needs to read and contemplate the ideas presented here.

Ronald Miranda

April 7, 2012, 1:05 p.m.

Always look forward to your weekly letters.

Regarding jobs, have you seen any graphs or other data showing labor force participation rate vs. available unemployment benefits (State, federal, union, length of benefits, etc)?  Knowing human nature (since I are human), I suspect most people drawing some sort of welfare are waiting until their unemployment benefits are about to run out or be reduced before they start to seriously look for employment.

As a side benefit of their (the unemployed) procrastination, I think it may make it easier for our veterans returning from overseas to get meaningful jobs instead of minimum wage jobs.

Jeff Martin

April 7, 2012, 10:16 a.m.

The reason for the anemic recovery is simple and you yourself have commented on it many times.  Th American consumer is still deleveraging.  I see dozens of credit reports each month in my work and I can tell you anecdotally that this is true. 
The other major reason for the anemic recovery is the refusal of the banks to address the 800lb gorilla in the room…the hundreds of billions of dollars in HELOCs that are on the books and not being paid.  These loans cannot be dealt with through Fannie, Freddie or HUD because they are essentially revolving credit issued by the banks themselves.  It is these loans that are keeping millions from refinancing and sending millions more into foreclosure.  Once this “toxic” debt is cleared, the housing market can finally recover the way it has in the past at this stage of an economic rebound.  A more robust housing market is essential for a self sustaining recovery that can withstand normal economic headwinds.

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