It’s Time for the Fed to Reload

In what is the shortest e-letter I have written in years, for which many of you will be grateful, this week we once again delve into Fed policy. Should they raise rates in June? The even tougher question is "Will they?" Plus we look at a very disturbing report that Chinese firms are unable to secure letters of credit for sizeable amounts of soybeans that are already in port. What is going on? Is it a bureaucratic snafu or a sign of real problems?

But first, I must acknowledge my real (and embarrassing) proof-reading difficulty last week. I meant to write: "... not my normal gentil self..." trying to be cute and show my limited French vocabulary, rather than the correct English word of genteel. Somehow, (spell-check?) it came out gentile in the copy. I was not meaning to imply anything about the various dispositions of any ethnicities and hope I did not offend anyone.

It's Time for the Fed to Reload

I have argued for almost two years that the Fed would not raise rates prior to the November election, for a variety of reasons. In summary, they were worried about deflation, did not want to appear to meddle in the election cycle, were worried about the true underlying strength of the recovery, and actually would welcome a little inflation.

Today, I am going…