Thoughts from the Frontline

Mid-2003 Forecast: Muddle Through*

By John Mauldin

July 4, 2003

2003 Mid-Summer Forecast: Muddle Through*
Why This Doesn’t Feel Like a Recovery?
The New Productivity Paradox
The Dark Side of the Productivity Force
What Do You Want The Fed To Do?
Daddy’s Home or Daddy’s Clueless?
Can You Say Long Term Capital Mortgage?
Transparency at the Fed

I promised in my January 2003 forecast I would re-visit my predictions, giving you a mid-year update. Faster than I can believe, that time is upon us. Once again I dare to venture where wiser minds will not trod: into the territory of economic predictions.

This week's letter is titled "Muddle Through*". That is Muddle Through with an asterisk. I lay out the case for the continuation of The Muddle Through Economy, although one which should be mildly better in the last half of the year than the first six months. But (isn't there always a but?) there is a serious potential problem that must be dealt with: Federal Reserve Bank policy which borders on - what's the…

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