Thoughts From the Frontline, Alpha

3 posts tagged with “Alpha”.

Hope Is Not a Strategy

August 31, 2007

Investors are constantly seeking "alpha," that elusive substance which yields returns in excess of a simple market portfolio. While I am flying today to Prague, this week good friend Rob Arnott teams up with associate John West to show that it is just as important to eliminate negative alpha. In fact, you could find an extra 2-4% in your returns just by doing so!

Rob starts with showing us what type of returns one can expect over the next ten years from the typical US market fund, and then shows how to remove some of the drags of negative alpha which hurt those returns. This is a very important piece and one I think you will want to read more than once.

Rob is the founder and head of Research Affiliates. He has published scores of articles in various financial journals, won four Graham and Dodd Scrolls for his writing, travels and is the keynote speaker at too many conferences to mention and is recognized as one of the top financial minds in the world. He wrote a chapter in my book, Just One Thing .


The Return of the Muddle Through Economy

November 4, 2006

With each new slice of economic data the past few weeks, the bond market decided that the economy was getting softer and the potential for the Fed to start cutting rates was growing. Rates have been drifting down for the past few weeks. And then came today's unemployment numbers. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The bond market simply threw up. Yields on the 10-year bond rose a breathtaking 12 basis points in just a few hours.

But wait a minute. Why should the bond market worry about unemployment? Employment is a lagging indicator. In fact, the last time the unemployment rate was this low was during the recession of 2001. The unemployment rate was 4.4% in April of 2001. It dropped to 4.3% in May, before it began its climb to 6.3% two years later. The National Bureau of Economic Research tells us that the official dates for the last recession were from March through November of 2001. Note that the unemployment rate was dropping for two months even as the economy was beginning a recession.

This is not an isolated event. It is quite common for the unemployment rate to fall even as a recession is beginning. That is what we mean when we say lagging indicator.


A Mass of Alpha

May 7, 2004

While there has been a lot happening in the markets, sometimes it is important to drop back and look at larger issues. This week we are going to explore a new way to look at (and perhaps find!) that most mysterious of all the creatures among the flora and fauna of the investment world - the elusive Alpha. This is a think-piece, so settle in for some new ideas. Plus, a Bull's Eye Investing update, as the book hits #10 on the New York Times Business Best-seller list.