What type of returns can we expect from the stock market? Do I think we are still in a secular bear market, even as the market tries to make new highs? What causes long term market cycles? Is there a psychological component to them? (Answer: yes.) And can we make any predictions about the future of the stock market? All this and more in this week's letter.

Last week we started a series on the debate between GaveKal and Bill Bonner on whether "It's different this time," centering on whether trade deficits matter. I said I was going to address this topic for the next few weeks. However, that was before major jet lag and time crunches caught up with me in London. If I wrote anything too detailed, I might have to disavow it on Monday. So, we will take up the debate next week, hopefully with a fresher and rested mind.