Exactly what are investors thinking? How can I be right about being in something called a secular bear market if stocks just keep going up? Isn't it time for me to throw in the towel, admit I was wrong and declare a new bull has begun? I answer these questions and more as we ponder the meaning of several important, if somewhat obscure, academic studies.
We begin with the question posed to me by Butch, an astute businessman and reader, as we watched the Texas Rangers from the balcony office suites in right field at the Ballpark in Arlington. Last Saturday, they looked like World Champions, with six home runs, solid pitching and great fielding. The fact they are in last place and going lower did not diminish our enjoyment of the atypical display in front of us. Alas, one game does not make a trend, nor a season. And as we will see, our home team bias has an analogy which will give you some insights into the direction of the markets.