The unemployment numbers came in today, and if you look under the hood of the data, it is worse than the headline loss of 4,000 jobs. Should the Fed cut the interest rates in two weeks? Will it make a difference? Are we headed into recession (as predicted here in my January 2007 forecast issue)? When do we see a bottom in the housing market? Are we there yet? We look at all this and more. It should make for an interesting letter, if I can get my jet-lagged body to cooperate.
But first (and quickly) let me mention that I will be at the venerable New Orleans Investment Conference October 21-25. This is the grand-daddie of all investment conferences and features some of the top investment analyst and minds in the country. Among the many speakers are James Grant, Ann Coulter, Lawrence Lindsey, and good friends Marc Faber, Dennis Gartman, Doug Casey. Click on the link and then click on faculty to see what is one of the highest quality gatherings of top-notch speakers at any conference anywhere. You should check it out, especially if you have an interest in gold and natural resources, as some of the top investment analysts in that area are always there. If you are there make sure and look me up.
And quickly, speaking of gold, it is soaring. It closed at over $700 today, in partial reaction to the awful employment numbers, which was not good for the dollar. But there is another interesting story going on in the background, pointed out to me earlier this week by that South African gold maven Prieur du Plessis. He points out there is a massive build-up of call options in the October and December Comex gold contracts, similar to a period in November 2005 prior to the gold price surging by more than 50%. Smart money? Maybe. But the recent 6% move or so may not be all there is in the "barbarous relic."