Clowns to the left of me,
Jokers to the right, here I am
Stuck in the middle with you!
- Stealers Wheel, 1974
The recent data on the economy is stronger than was expected. Does this mean that the slowdown we have seen for the past few quarters is behind us? Other data suggests the economy is weakening (witness the very slow 1.3% GDP growth last quarter). This week we look at the seeming disconnect in the data, briefly examine where the real stock market booms are happening, and re-visit the housing markets. It's a lot for what will be a quick letter (and lots of charts), as I am trying to leave town, so let's jump right in.
(And yes, I was supposed to finish a letter I started two weeks ago on black swans, but a technicality is holding up that letter. It will be resolved next week.)