Let's look at the huge amount of data that we had this week. (Thanks to Wayne Anderson in my office who gathered a few hundred pages of articles for me to read while I was out.)

I had dinner with fellow analyst Greg Weldon this last Sunday in New Jersey. Watching the scores of wild swans and Canadian geese on a tranquil ocean side pond, we reflected about what Greg calls the "deflation tsunami" that is sweeping the world, which is anything BUT tranquil.

Deflation has been a long time theme of this letter. It is why I have been so bullish on bonds for years. I first wrote in the fall of 1998 that we are "approaching a period of deflation", as a summary of an article. We are now there. Let's look at the evidence, which is mounting each month.

One of the constant complaints of Yankees who come to Texas is that those of us who are natives do not know how to drive on ice. This is true. But that is because we only get to practice about once a year. We don't seem to remember what to do from year to year. Is it steer into the slide or away from it? What do we do when we start sliding back down the hill? It can cause huge traffic tie-ups.

Finally, I give you an alternative mutual fund for your cash instead of money market returns.

A Glimmer of Hope on the horizon, but not much more. This week's e-letter has been difficult to write. There is a MOUNTAIN of data that I have sifted through, trying to read the future from the combination of facts and trends. Like reading tea leaves in the bottom of the cup and predicting the future, a lot depends upon the bias of the reader.

The most dangerous forecasters are those who tell an audience what they want to hear, rather than what they need to hear. Almost as dangerous are those whose bias only allows them to see one side of the coin. If all you can see is "heads", then that will be your call every time the coin is flipped. You will be wrong 50% of the time.

There is enough data out this week that one can make a beginning case for a soon-to-be here recovery. Yes, even with the extremely negative action in the stock markets, I can find something positive. Let's start with that.

This will be an unusual e-letter in that I am going to focus on some recent interviews with well respected investment analysts or economists. I believe you will find them as instructive and thought-provoking as I did. I will quote them directly and then make comments.

The first is from Barron's with Jeremy Grantham. Grantham is a very highly respected money manager and analyst. His firm manages $22 billion. There are many in the investment industry who hold Grantham in almost guru status. He has earned it.

Have we seen the bottom? Is it onward and upward? As I start this e-letter, the S&P and DOW are trying to top their recent highs. Will the S&P go through the 1250 resistance level? Is my short trade in jeopardy? Is it time to become a bull?

I will become bullish once again, but not yet, fellow traveler. While I cannot see around the Curve In The Road, I can read the warning signs. They keep telling us to watch out for bear traps.

This is an important e-letter. I have thought long and worked hard on it. Part two, which will offer some investment possibilities, will come next week.