A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This week we look at how the GDP is actually calculated to give us an idea as to the potential for a recession. We re-visit my concepts of a Slow Motion Recession and a Muddle Through Economy. We briefly look at the sliding dollar and housing, and see how it all adds up. You'll need to put your thinking caps on, but it should be interesting.

But first, a quick house-keeping note. Many people who read this letter get it from friends or other publishing firms or read it on web sites other than www.frontlinethoughts.com. And that is perfectly fine. I take it as a compliment that anyone would do so. I encourage anyone to use the letter as they see fit. More than a few firms send this letter to their clients as part of their own offering, wrapping the letter with their material. As long as the letter is used in its entirety, I have no problem with anyone doing so. If you want to post the letter or a link on your website, feel free to do so. I would appreciate you dropping us a note every now and then letting us know that you do just so we can get an idea of where it is going.

One last point. If you want to search for an idea or concept in my letters, you can go to the Frontline Thoughts website and click on the archives and in the top right portion of the page is a place you can type in your key words and then search for them. And in the next few weeks and months, we will be announcing cool new web sites and services, so stay tuned.