• July 7, 2023

Muddled Optimism

“A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest…”

—The Boxer, Paul Simon, 1969

• August 12, 2022

Curving Toward Stagflation

The latest data shows inflation is still with us at an 8.5% annual rate. That means we can expect the Fed to keep tightening, trying to reduce demand and relieve pressure on consumer prices.

• October 29, 2021

Trick or Treat Economy

To Jerome Powell and the Fed:

• October 15, 2021

Logistical Sandpiles

At the risk of overusing a favorite metaphor, today we’ll talk about sandpiles. My past sandpile stories focused on financial crises. The same principle holds in any complex system, though. Everything works until suddenly it doesn’t. As Minsky said, stability breeds instability. Then one additional grain of sand triggers a collapse.

• September 17, 2021

Inflation: Less Transitory than Expected

If the inflation numbers leave you scratching your head, join the club. The August data was especially perplexing. The Producer Price Index came in hot, up 8.3% in the last year, inviting 1970s comparisons. Obviously, our current situation is different in many ways. But so were the 1970s, at first.

• September 3, 2021

Human Capital Losses

Remember math class? Let me give you a quick refresher.