This Time It’s Different
November 11, 2005
"For over ten years now, a wide majority of market strategists and economists from respected investment banks (Morgan Stanley, Dresdner...), a large number of upscale financial publications (The Economist, The Financial Times... ), highly respected consulting firms (Lombard Street Research, Grant's Interest Rate Observer, Gloom Boom Doom... ) have drawn on historical parallels to warn us that the expansion of the past decade in US consumption was both unsustainable and likely to end in tears. Real estate all over the Christian civilized world was bound to collapse, along with global equity markets. The world would then enter into an 'ice age'. So far, despite the strength of the above thought process, and the numerous historical parallels, the dreaded meltdown has completely failed to materialize. So what is the next step?"
-GaveKal Research, from the introduction to "Our Brave New World."