Watch special video of Marko Papic, Marc Faber, John Mauldin, Martin Barnes, and Jonathan Tepper as they debate the Fed's QE strategy. Jon Sundt, president and CEO of Altegris, moderates. This lively panel discussion was filmed at the Strategic Investment Conference 2011 in La Jolla, CA.

We are halfway through the year, and what a ride it has been. Today I will share my thoughts on what the next six months could look like, and endeavor to keep it short and simple, as we have a holiday weekend. There will be more than a few charts. What does the end of QE2 mean? What can we expect from Europe? Is a commodity bubble getting ready to burst? Is it really a bubble? There is a lot to cover.

I recorded a PBS show a month or so ago, and it is airing this weekend on a number of stations around the country, so look for details at the end of the letter. Now let’s jump in.

What happens when the Fed is finished with QE2? I have been letting that filter into my thinking lately as I look at the economic landscape and the data we have seen the past few weeks. Correlation is not causation, as I often say, but all we can do is look back at what happened last time and speculate about the future. A very dangerous occupation, but your fearless analyst will plunge on ahead into the jungle of a very hazy future. You come with me at your own risk!

New York Times Bestseller

Quickly, a big Mauldin thanks to those who already bought my book, Endgame, as it made the New York Times bestseller list yesterday, earlier than I thought it would. That would be my 4^th, and that and my kids are about my only small claims to fame. I have ruthlessly promoted the book to you, and so this week I resist my inner promotional demon and simply provide a link to http://www.amazon.com/Endgame-Debt-SuperCycle-Changes-Everything/dp/1118004574/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1298937384&sr=8-1 where you can read the reviews and buy the book if you have not, or get it in your local stores. At the end of the letter, I note that I will be at a book launch party in London Monday evening, and would love to have you stop by. Details below. And now to this week’s letter.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I seem to remember that one of the reasons for QE2 was to lower rates on the longer end of the US yield curve. Clearly, that has not happened? Today we look at come of the unintended consequences of monetary policy, turn our eyes briefly to consumer debt, and wonder about deflating incomes. There are a lot of very interesting things to cover. (This letter will print long, but there are a lot of graphs. Usual amount of copy.)

But first, the are some changes and upgrades being made to the database that houses the list of my 1.5 million closest friends. That means that some of you will be reading this on the website this week, rather than having the letter sent directly to you. If this letter doesn’t show up for some reason, you can always go to www.2000wave.com and get it directly from the website. We should be back on track by next week. Sorry for any inconvenience.

Second, long-time readers know I have an avid interest in biotech. I am also a serial entrepreneur on the lookout for business opportunities. Some have been successful and others have been learning experiences. On the biotech front, I frequently talk and meet with CEOs and scientists in the biotech space. In this process I have come across what I think is an amazing new product. I have personally been using it and love it! I bought the marketing rights. Next week I will introduce you to it. We are rushing to get the material ready before Christmas, and production efforts on the websites are not up to my normal standards. But since it only goes to my closest friends, I trust you will cut me some slack. And it is an amazing product. More next week.

You can be the judge as to whether I should have jumped at yet another opportunity. But rest assured, gentle reader, that my primary focus is on writing to you every Friday, and it always will be. That is what I love to do and what I seemingly do best. Now, into the letter.