"Central Bankers of the World, Unite!" That at least seems to be the theme from the central banker's playbook. The US Federal Reserve, The European Central Bank and now even the Bank of Japan all seem to be in a mood to tighten the global money supply. What does this mean? We explore that thought and look at the US saving rate (or lack thereof), foreclosure rates and more.

But first, I want to once again mention that I along with my partners Altegris Investments will be hosting our third annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla, California next May 18-20. As usual, we have a powerhouse lineup of speakers. Martin Barnes of Bank Credit Analyst, Dennis Gartman, Richard Russell, Louis-Vincent Gave, Mark Finn and my personal (as well as someone called Oprah's) doctor Dr. Michael Roizen (who wrote the RealAge series of books and the recent blockbuster bestseller You - The Owner's Manual). With this lineup you can expect not only solid information and some fun, but some very serious debates. One of my rules in designing a conference is to get speakers who are going to help make me a better investor and analyst. I think we have done that and more this year.

How bad is the pension fund issue. Is it a crisis as the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) claims? Or is the American Benefits Council right when they say the problems are blown out of proportion? And depending on your assumptions, they could both be right. Examining this debate will provide a useful springboard as we examine retirement issues you may be facing.

But first, last week I promised a special announcement. Ready to ship and in a bookstore near you is my new book called Just One Thing. Some of you may have received an email yesterday about the book, and a lot of you ordered, because it is now #4 on Amazon in less than 24 hours! Permit me to make a few personal observations about the book and the publishing process.

It seems like every week I get a letter from a reader asking questions along the following line: "How can I make a lot of money so I can retire early and/or live the lifestyle I want to live when I do retire?" Most of them are phrased far more eloquently and with accompanying questions and comments, but the bottom line is, "How can I get rich?"

I'm especially touched by the very sincere letters from young people who ask this most basic of questions about accumulating wealth. They are not looking for get-rich-quick schemes but for some guidance as to how to organize their lives. I've never really been able to answer these letters with anything close to an adequate response. In today's letter I'm going to draft a response that we can use for all such future letters. I trust you will find it interesting as we wax a little philosophical about how to build wealth.

This week we finish with our series on the US trade deficit. When will we see a real problem? What are the likely results from a balancing of global trade? Where are the investment opportunities, and where are the pitfalls? It should make for an interesting conclusion and hopefully an interesting letter.

Let's start this letter by noting that this week is the anniversary of the all- time high of the NASDAQ. Five years ago this week the NASDAQ topped at 5,048. It eventually dropped to around 1100 before "recovering" to today's close at 2,041.

I remember writing in the fall of 1998 that the NASDAQ was overpriced. Eventually, time has shown that view to be correct. But in 1999, I looked like I didn't have a clue. And I confess at the time, I didn't have a clue. I couldn't figure out what was making the market go up. To me it was clearly a bubble. As a value investor, I couldn't bring myself to participate, other than through money managers who were market timers.

Today I discuss one of the most dangerous threats to your retirement and then we listen to a few seasoned pros tell us why the market is not going up. It should make for an interesting session, so let's get started.

I got the following email from a reader yesterday which so upset me I decided to make it the lead for this week's letter. Quote:

Today we turn our attention to the question of retirement: Will the Boomer Generation be able to retire on time? Will Social Security go bankrupt? Is Harry Dent in his book The Roaring 2000s right when he asserts that we will have a boom until approximately 2008-9 because Boomers are saving and spending? And then watch as things go bust (an actual depression) because Boomers start selling stocks and retiring?

Today we look at why oil prices are likely heading down, how brilliant economists come to the wrong conclusions and of course a few comments on the recent market action. Let's jump right in.

More Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Since I criticized the trade policies of President Bush last week, maybe I can work up enough nerve to critique a recent article by one of the more well-known economists in the country, Arthur Laffer, of Laffer Curve fame.

Every week, as I sit down to write, I think about the scores of research reports and articles I have read in the past few weeks. Is there a new theme? What trend is developing? What is the picture coming into view from the pieces of the puzzle at which I get to look? What have I seen that I should bring to your attention?

Usually one or two things jump out, and this week is no exception. A number of articles, all about the dollar, and when taken in concert, are beginning to concern me. The developments in the dollar are the most serious threat to my view of a Muddle Through Economy and Market. This is important for you to understand, as it could have a profound affect upon your investments. We will look at these in depth.