It's a slow Thanksgiving Friday, and I decided I would rather be writing to you than shopping in the malls. In fact, I would pay good money not to go to the malls today. Which my kids think I am because they pointed out on Thanksgiving the amazing values I am missing, particularly on items they think should be on my Christmas shopping list. And I agree, I am surprised by the level of discounting, and believe those prices will be there in a few weeks when I actually get around to shopping. (Parenthetically, if holiday sales are strong but prices are lower [and they do seem to be!], what will that do to profits?) So, rather than participate in a shopping frenzy, let's ponder on the value of all those dollars my fellow citizens are spending today.

At the New Orleans investment conference last week, there were several constant themes. Gold, of course, would continue its rise. And the dollar would fall. The only variants on the latter theme were, by how much and when and against what. And as if on cue, the dollar made a 19-month low today as gold started to once again attempt to assault its recent highs. Today we look at the dollar from a longer-term perspective, see how this relates to global liquidity, and let you in on a running debate I am having with a few colleagues.

But first, a quick note from my partners in London. They (Absolute Return Partners) are looking for a hedge fund research analyst. If you are interested, you can either drop me your resume and I will forward it, or you can reach Nick Rees at www.arpllp.com.

The economy created 215,000 new jobs in November. A paltry 11,000 were manufacturing. Is that good enough? In previous recoveries we would have been seeing jobs created at a much higher level. But that number is not quite the story. Actually, we saw 4,586,000 new hires in November. That is not a typo. The reality of employment in the US is quite a bit different than the employment numbers often suggest. We look at a relatively new database that sheds some very interesting light on how amazingly dynamic the job market in the US is.

I write this week's letter as I fly from Toronto to Miami. It will be a little shorter than a regular letter, but I also include a chapter from Just One Thing. It is Dennis Gartman's Rules of Trading. I saw Dennis briefly last night, as we were both speaking at an RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) conference, and was reminded after a few of his great stories of just what a really smart trader he is. For those new to this letter, Just One Thing is my latest book which features the writing of 11 of my friends and your humble analyst writing about the one thing we find most important that we have learned in our careers. You won't find stock tips or the latest how-to-turn a thousand into a million in five easy lessons, but you will get solid philosophical grounding on the basic principles of economics and investing from a group of really smart, successful guys (and then my musings as well). You can get your copy at your local bookstore or go to Amazon at www.amazon.com/justonething.