In the pre-crisis days, I used to write about things like P/E ratios, secular bull and bear markets, valuations, and all of the things we used to think about in the Old Normal. But what about those topics as we begin our trip through the New Normal? It's time to reconvene class and think through what might change and what will remain the same. I think this will be a fun read - and let me tip my hand. I come out on the side of a new secular bull that gets us back to trend - but not just yet. The New Normal has to have its turn first. (Note: this will print out longer than usual, as there are a lot of charts.)

And speaking of first, I once again need some help from readers. I will be in "jail" next week for the Muscular Dystrophy Society. I need you to help bail me out. You can go to https://www.joinmda.org/downtowndallas2010/johnm and make a donation to help kids and families who really need help in these difficult times, and also help sponsor research that will eventually cure this disease. If you follow the link, you can see a cute video - and then make your donation!

I thank you and I am sure Jerry's kids thank you too!

What are the basic premises which determine your investment portfolio? Is there a consistency to your thought, or is your portfolio a blend of ideas which may not agree with one another? How sound do your ideas appear when subjected to critique? This week we start a series on my basic investment premises and then see how those premises should perhaps inform your investment portfolios.

This series comes courtesy of an idea triggered by last week's letter. I was talking about a CIA researcher who was writing about the importance of subjecting the views of an analyst to intense scrutiny. I thought it might prove useful to my readers to review the basic investment themes and models which shape my own strategies, and perhaps offer some of the pros and cons about those ideas. We will let the devil's advocate speak up and see if we can deal with his objections.

I start this week's letter somewhere over Kansas on the way to Lake Louise outside of Calgary, Canada. I have been giving a great deal of thought to a speech I will do tomorrow and have decided to make the speech the subject of this week's letter. I have been given no particular topic other then to talk about something that I find of interest, but to keep it to 40 minutes and 20 minutes for questions.

This week I want to briefly look at some comments by Stephen Roach and Rob Arnott, two of my favorite analysts. Then we quickly segue into Part One of a series showing the relationship between stock market returns, P/E ratios, inflation/deflation and the economy. This is some of the more practical and significant research I have written about in the last few years, and I think you will find it very helpful in developing your own investment strategy.