In what is the shortest e-letter I have written in years, for which many of you will be grateful, this week we once again delve into Fed policy. Should they raise rates in June? The even tougher question is "Will they?" Plus we look at a very disturbing report that Chinese firms are unable to secure letters of credit for sizeable amounts of soybeans that are already in port. What is going on? Is it a bureaucratic snafu or a sign of real problems?

But first, I must acknowledge my real (and embarrassing) proof-reading difficulty last week. I meant to write: "... not my normal gentil self..." trying to be cute and show my limited French vocabulary, rather than the correct English word of genteel. Somehow, (spell-check?) it came out gentile in the copy. I was not meaning to imply anything about the various dispositions of any ethnicities and hope I did not offend anyone.

I returned very early this morning from the Las Vegas Money Show, where all flights to Dallas were cancelled last night due to the odd tornado or two in the area. I went back to the hotel, had a dinner with friends, went to the room and began to research the hot questions on the minds of many of the 10,000 attendees at the conference: Where is the market going and are we in the beginnings of a bear market? Downloading a ton of recent research into my computer, I took the time in the airport and on the plane to try and give you an updated answer to what I wrote on February 6 in this space:

"As I wrote last month, the markets could continue to move sideways to up, but I think we could see this year as a classic "Sell in May and go away" year. I would have fairy close stops on any trading accounts." (Thoughts from the Frontline, Feb. 6)

With the theme song (circa 1979) from The Clash as our background music - Should I Stay or Should I Go? - we explore whether the Fed will raise interest rates this summer or postpone any actions until after the election. We look at a prediction by bond maven Jim Bianco, whose track record on these matters is quite good. He believes the Fed may raise rates as early as the June meeting. This seemingly arcane topic has important implications for your portfolio and the economy. It should make for an interesting letter.

Free trade, jobs, fairness and the economy are all front and center in the coming political debate. As politicians respond to polls, we are going to hear a lot more about them in the coming months. Most of what you hear will be VPG - Verbalized Political Garbage. It will demonstrate that most politicians know very little about basic economics, or else do understand and simply wish to pander to voters in order to get elected.

Today we will wade into the core of this debate, hoping to give you an understanding of what is really at stake. Polls tell me that 75% of you will not like what I write. But since this is a free letter it will not affect my renewal rates. Likewise I am not running for office and do not have to couch my terms in evasive language designed to obscure what I really mean. If we have enough time and space, I am sure I can find something to annoy the remaining 25%. So let's get started.

This week we are going to visit my Worry Closet, where things goes bump in the night. There are many writers who assure us that those sounds are imaginary and I should go back to sleep. But others suggest the sounds may emanate from some real substance, and that their corpus is growing in the dark. We will review the arguments while we take a quick peep into the closet.

This is always a fairly intensive research time of the year for me, as I begin to format my thoughts about the possible trends for the coming year. Next week, I will sit down on Thursday and Friday to write my annual forecast edition. It will be a shorter letter this week, as I husband my energy for next week's marathon.

But today we will preview one part of the puzzle that will be 2004: the housing market and its implication for interest rates.

Today we look at recent Fed statements, which give us more than a few clues as to what is really happening in the economy, plus a few thoughts on the markets.

The song in my mind the past few days has been "Free at Last." My book in progress is finished - all 24 chapters! It's in the hands of my staff and the capable editors at Wiley. They tell me it will be 400 plus pages, bordering on 500. I left about 300 pages on the editing floor. More on that below.

Two weeks ago we examined the changes in our lives. Last week we looked at imbalances in the economy. This week the theme that I see in my daily reading is the large number of major contradictions apparent in the markets. There are so many contradictions we will not get to them all, but let's start, as it will make for some interesting and controversial analysis.

This week we review what I learned on my trip to Geneva; we look at a way to invest in the Chinese Renminbi; I offer some thoughts on master strategist Paul McCulley latest essay; I ponder the implications of Bill Bonner's soon to be released best-seller; and, I get more concerned (and vocal) about Greenspan and Fed policy. It should make for a thought-provoking and interesting letter.

This week we look at what Greenspan really said and what he didn't say; the real reason why the bond market reacted so violently (not what the headlines would lead us to believe); what History tells us about the volatility of the bond markets and what we can expect in the future. It should make for a lively letter, as I wrap up the week early to catch a plane to Paris. Stay with me, as this letter is going to give you some real insight into the bond markets, a "secret" called the "6/50 Rule," which will help you as you ponder interest rates and your investment future. Let's jump right in.