Everywhere there are arguments that we are in a "V"-shaped recovery. And there are signs that in fact that is the case. Today we will look at some of those, and then take up the topic of when the Fed will raise rates. We open the case and look at the evidence. Is there enough to come to a real conviction? I think there is. (And at the end of the letter I mention two conferences I am speaking at in the next few months, in Vancouver and San Francisco.)

But first, a little housekeeping. The delivery rate for this letter has not been good for some time now and we are aware of it. We get tons of letters and calls from long-time readers who want to know why we have dropped them from the list. They keep resubscribing but not getting the letter. It is a problem. I was not getting delivery on my own personal accounts from well-known email providers. We apologize for any inconvenience. Please know that we do not drop anyone from the list unless they request it or we get hard bounces or undeliverable messages.

Hopefully that has all changed with this letter. The problem has been that the list is so large that it is blocked long before the letter ever hits your inbox. The computers at service providers just assume anything this large can't be for real. We are now using a service that is a third-party verification of our letter, which hopefully will fix the problem (not a cheap solution, by the way!). So, there may be a lot of you for whom this letter is (hopefully) a pleasant surprise after not getting it for some time.

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For the record, we are working on a MAJOR revision of the website and the letter. There will be a lot more ways for you to interact with me and each other. A lot more information and capabilities. We are excited. It should be here by the fall. Tiffani and I think you are really going to like it. And now to the letter.

Clowns to the left of me,
Jokers to the right, here I am
Stuck in the middle with you!
- Stealers Wheel, 1974

The recent data on the economy is stronger than was expected. Does this mean that the slowdown we have seen for the past few quarters is behind us? Other data suggests the economy is weakening (witness the very slow 1.3% GDP growth last quarter). This week we look at the seeming disconnect in the data, briefly examine where the real stock market booms are happening, and re-visit the housing markets. It's a lot for what will be a quick letter (and lots of charts), as I am trying to leave town, so let's jump right in.

(And yes, I was supposed to finish a letter I started two weeks ago on black swans, but a technicality is holding up that letter. It will be resolved next week.)

I have often written about the high probability of a recession following an inverted yield curve (where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates), based upon research which suggests the yield curve is our most reliable indicator of future recessions. I am often asked whether a yield curve causes a recession. The (very) short answer is no. But then what is the mechanism that makes it so reliable? Is it different this time? How can we believe that the economy has a few bumps in its future when things are just so darn good? We ponder these questions in today's letter, as well as peruse the "shocking" housing data released this morning, and look at a very interesting chart on gold.

But first, let me call to your attention the official announcement of my 4th annual Strategic Investment Conference, co-sponsored by my friends at Altegris Investments. The conference will be April 19-21 in La Jolla, California. The line-up of speakers is quite impressive. Richard Russell, of course, will be there. It is one of his few live speaking engagements of the year, as he does not travel to speak. So we bring the mountain to Mohammed, so to speak. Dennis Gartman will regale us with his stories and wisdom. Dr. Woody Brock, one of the world's better economists and frequent speaker at Davos will be there. George Friedman of Stratfor (what a treat!) will give us his views on how the world will develop politically over the coming years, and hopefully give us a preview of his forthcoming book. Louis-Vincent Gave will kick things off. Rob Arnott will follow. And Dr. Mike Roizen (YOU: The Owner's Manual ) will give us the latest on how to stay healthy, live longer, and enjoy our lives. And your humble analyst, of course.

In designing a conference, I put together a group of speakers that I want to hear and learn from. Many conferences have one or two headliners and then fill in the rest of the time. This conference has nothing but headliners. Every speech is a keynote. And there are plenty of chances to meet the speakers personally.

There is an arcane debate going on in economic circles. How fast can the economy grow without inflation becoming a problem? The answer may be, not as fast as we thought. And the answer matters because the people who have their fingers on the interest-rate trigger take this arcane stuff seriously. How you answer the question also has implications for the unemployment rate. Yes, there are people who worry about it getting too low. Plus, we look at the Dow. The Dow may be telling us more about how indexes are constructed than about how the economy and the market are really doing. All that, some thoughts on the housing data, and more as we ponder the question, "Is it really different this time?"

But first, one of the really great investment conferences every year is the annual New Orleans Investment Conference. This year it is November 15-19. Originally started by the late Jim Blanchard, the conference has a strong gold contingent, but has expanded to cover a wide range of themes. Last year, the conference had to be rescheduled because of Katrina, but this year it is back and looks to be better than ever.

In addition to yours truly, they have lined up Steve Forbes, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Dennis Gartman, and Newt Gingrich, plus scores of other well-known speakers, workshops, and private sessions. If you register before November I, you can save $200 on the full price and half off for a friend or spouse.

This week I am in La Jolla for my annual Strategic Investment Conference. It is packed, and of course I am quite busy, so not much time to write my regular e-letter. But a few weeks ago, Rich Smith from The Motley Fool did a fairly wide-ranging interview with me that just came out this week, and I thought he did an excellent job in putting together a coherent piece from what was a long conversation covering a lot of topics. So, let's see what Rich found interesting in my musings.

By Rich Smith

Do you have a net worth of $1 million? Own a hedge fund? If the answer to one of those questions is "yes," then chances are that you know John Mauldin -- president of Millennium Wave Advisors, author of the weekly e-letter "Thoughts from the Frontline," and perhaps the leading proponent of the theory that America is in the midst of what he calls a secular bear market. When you need a big-picture view of what's going on in the economy, John Mauldin is the guy to ask. Fool contributor Rich Smith did just that.

This week we look at the possible direction of interest rates both at the long end and the short end. Bottom line: history suggests there is some serious volatility in the future on the long end of the interest rate curve later in the year. The yield curve and the 6/50 Rule when looked at together reveal some very interesting insights. (This letter may print longer than usual, but that is because there are a lot of charts. In words it is actually shorter than most letters.)

But first, I want to once again mention that I along with my partners Altegris Investments will be hosting our third annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla, California next May 18-20. As usual, we have a powerhouse lineup of speakers. Martin Barnes of Bank Credit Analyst, Dennis Gartman, Richard Russell, Louis-Vincent Gave, Mark Finn and my personal (as well as someone called Oprah's) doctor Dr. Michael Roizen (who wrote the RealAge series of books and the recent blockbuster bestseller You - The Owner's Manual). With this lineup you can expect not only solid information and some fun, but some very serious debates. One of my rules in designing a conference is to get speakers who are going to help make me a better investor and analyst. I think we have done that and more this year.

This week we look at an interesting index of greed and fear, look at the yield curve and the new 30 year Treasury bond, the latest unemployment numbers and a lot more. What do they tell us? Is there a theme or at least a rhyme? Or is it all random noise sent by the market gods to lull us back into the mistakes of the past?

The markets are a race between greed and fear. Right now Greed is looking like Seabiscuit beating War Admiral by four lengths at the stretch. (As an aside, you can read the greatest descriptions of that race - and one of the truly great sports columns of all time - by the incomparable Grantland Rice at http://www.secondrunning.com/seabiscuit_war%20admiral.htm. That man could stir the soul with his words, and this was Rice at his best.)

Good friend James Montier over at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London has been tracking his own measure of fear and greed for the last few years. It is a fairly simple measurement but it does show some very interesting patterns. He admittedly has not looked at the index for awhile (it is rather like watching paint dry on a week to week basis), so he dusted off his old data files and updated his index. What a difference a year makes. The index has only reached this level of greed in September of 1987 and May of 1996.

Last week we started a series on a very important book by friend Joe Ellis called "Ahead of the Curve." We continue this week looking at specific indicators that Joe thinks give us a heads up when the economy is about to slow down and the stock market will being a bear market. I am then going to marry those thoughts with some work on the yield curve, especially looking at what the yield curve may be telling us today.

Cutting to the chase, I am going to make an argument that it is high time for you to start thinking about taking a defensive posture on your stock market investments. None of the indicators we will be looking at give us anything close to exact timing, but there are enough red flashing lights to give us cause for concern about the direction of the market in the coming quarters.

The level of attention to the recent and mild inversion of the yield curve has bordered on hysteria in the media. Does it portend a recession? Or is, as Ethan Harris, the chief economist of Lehman Brothers suggests, the bond market simply on drugs? This week we pause in our series on trade deficits to look at the real meaning of the yield curve and what it does and, just as importantly, what it does not mean. I give you a basic primer on the yield curve, as well as links to more information than you ever wanted so you can read morefor yourself.

But first, thanks to all those who purchased a copy of Just One Thing this year. My editor tells me sales are doing very well, and another publisher has picked up the Chinese and Korean language rights. Thanks to a lot of word of mouth, like this note from Paul Howard:

While there has been a lot happening in the markets, sometimes it is important to drop back and look at larger issues. This week we are going to explore a new way to look at (and perhaps find!) that most mysterious of all the creatures among the flora and fauna of the investment world - the elusive Alpha. This is a think-piece, so settle in for some new ideas. Plus, a Bull's Eye Investing update, as the book hits #10 on the New York Times Business Best-seller list.