Everywhere there are arguments that we are in a "V"-shaped recovery. And there are signs that in fact that is the case. Today we will look at some of those, and then take up the topic of when the Fed will raise rates. We open the case and look at the evidence. Is there enough to come to a real conviction? I think there is. (And at the end of the letter I mention two conferences I am speaking at in the next few months, in Vancouver and San Francisco.)
But first, a little housekeeping. The delivery rate for this letter has not been good for some time now and we are aware of it. We get tons of letters and calls from long-time readers who want to know why we have dropped them from the list. They keep resubscribing but not getting the letter. It is a problem. I was not getting delivery on my own personal accounts from well-known email providers. We apologize for any inconvenience. Please know that we do not drop anyone from the list unless they request it or we get hard bounces or undeliverable messages.
Hopefully that has all changed with this letter. The problem has been that the list is so large that it is blocked long before the letter ever hits your inbox. The computers at service providers just assume anything this large can't be for real. We are now using a service that is a third-party verification of our letter, which hopefully will fix the problem (not a cheap solution, by the way!). So, there may be a lot of you for whom this letter is (hopefully) a pleasant surprise after not getting it for some time.
If that is the case, we would like to know. If you have the time, drop me a response that says "got it" in the subject line. And of course, if you don't want to get the letter you can hit the unsubscribe button at the bottom. But even better, why not forward this to a friend and tell them to subscribe?
For the record, we are working on a MAJOR revision of the website and the letter. There will be a lot more ways for you to interact with me and each other. A lot more information and capabilities. We are excited. It should be here by the fall. Tiffani and I think you are really going to like it. And now to the letter.