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Thoughts From the Frontline, Investing

4 posts tagged with “Investing”.

Into the Matrix

July 7, 2012

(Bull's Eye Investing Ten Years Later, cont.)

What does the current environment of earnings and valuations tell us about the prospects for the US stock markets in general over the next 3-5-7-10 years? This week we have part two of "Bull's Eye Investing Ten Years Later," which we started last week. These two letters have been co-authored with Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. We take a look at research we did almost ten years ago as part of my book Bull's Eye Investing, updating the data and asking,"Are we there yet? When will we get to the end of the secular bear market?" We will start with a few paragraphs from last week's letter and then move right along.


Bull’s Eye Investing (Almost) Ten Years Later

June 30, 2012

It's been almost a decade since I co-authored with Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research some research in this letter that later became chapters five and six of Bull's Eye Investing. Although the ten-year anniversary of the book is actually 2013, the current vulnerabilities in the markets encouraged us to revisit the material a bit early, to prepare you for what lies ahead. Reflecting back to yesteryear gives us the opportunity to assess the accuracy of our insights.

I am in Tuscany at the moment, watching the sun set over the Tuscan hills; so I will thank Ed for doing the heavy lifting in this letter while I get to relax, although there is so much going on and I am such a junkie that I am forced to get my current-events fix every day. I must say, the news certainly provides some very pure adrenaline rushes. But more on that at the end. For now we take the longer view of the stock market that I first wrote about at the end of the last century, and to which Ed added some real meat in early 2003.

But first, I am pleased to be able to announce the release of the rest of the videos of the 2012 Strategic Investment Conference, co-sponsored by my partner, Altegris, which we held last month. David Rosenberg (and many attendees!) said this was the best conference ever, featuring a world-class lineup of economic and financial leaders. Our very enthusiastic attendees created a roomful of energy that the speakers seemed to feed off of, and everyone brought their "A" game. It really was quite special. And now we have the videos.

Those of you who are members of my special program for accredited investors, called the Mauldin Circle, can access the conference videos by going to the "My Information" section at the bottom of your personal home page, when you log into www.altegris.com. I can't think of a better way to sharpen your investment outlook than to partake of the insights of some of the best minds in the world, including Dr. Lacy Hunt, Niall Ferguson, David Rosenberg, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mohamed El-Erian ... not to mention your humble analyst.

In order to view the videos, you must be a member of the Mauldin Circle. This program has replaced our Accredited Investor Newsletter Program. My partner Altegris and I have worked hard to enhance the program, which now includes access to webinars, conferences, special events, videos, accredited newsletters, and presentations featuring alternative-investment managers and other thought leaders and influencers.

The good news is that this program is completely free. The only restriction is that, because of securities regulations, you have to register and be vetted by one of my trusted partners, which in the United States is Altegris, before you can be added to the subscriber roster. This will be a quite painless process (I promise). Once you register, an Altegris representative will call you to provide access to the videos, presentations, and summaries from the speakers featured at our 2012 Strategic Investment Conference.

Click here to initiate your membership in our exclusive Mauldin Experience Program. After you have talked with the Altegris representative, you'll be able to view the first set of five videos, featuring Dr. Lacy Hunt, Jeffrey Gundlach, Niall Ferguson, David Rosenberg, and Mohamed El-Erian, as well as the final set featuring Dr. Brock, our two all-star panels (one with Marc Faber), and yours truly. I think you will find the presentations particularly relevant this week. And now, let's think about secular bear markets.


A Little Bull’s Eye Investing

April 21, 2012

"Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?"
"That depends a good deal on where you want to get to," said the Cheshire Cat.
"I don't much care where . . . " said Alice.
"Then it doesn't matter which way you go," said the Cat.
". . . just so long as I get SOMEWHERE," Alice added as an explanation.
"Oh, you're sure to do that," said the Cat, "if you only walk long enough."

—Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

Bull's Eye Investing was the book that really helped establish this letter. It dealt with a host of investing ideas, secular market cycles, value investing, alternative investing, and more. It is still in print some nine years later and has had a very positive response. Today I can share that I have taken that material, updated it, and written a new book, part of the Little Book series done by Wiley, called The Little Book of Bull's Eye Investing – Finding Value, Generating Absolute Returns, and Controlling Risk in Turbulent Markets.

Rather than talk about a book I am going to do, I have waited to announce this one until it is off the presses and being shipped. Technically, the publication date is May 8, but Amazon will be shipping before then and it will be in book stores in short order. I am quite pleased with it and think you will find it's a great way to "catch up" with my thoughts on the nitty-gritty of investing and allocation.

Today's e-letter is the introduction and part of the first chapter of the book. You can order the book on Amazon at http://www.amazon.com/bullseye. And get a few extra for friends, family, and clients! Now, let's get started.


Your Three Investing Opponents

December 24, 2011

It’s Christmas Eve and that time of year when we start thinking about what we did in the past year and what we want to do in the next. Why do we make the mistakes we make (over and over and over?) and how do we avoid them in the future? If it seems to be part of our basic human condition, that’s because it is. Recently I have been having a running conversation with Barry Ritholtz on the psychology of investing (something we both enjoy discussing and writing about). Since I am busily researching my annual forecast issue (and taking the day off), I asked Barry to share a few of his thoughts on why we do the things we do. He gives us even more, exploring the three main opponents we face when we enter the arena of investing.

Barry is the driving force behind The Big Picture blog, often cited as the #1 blog site in terms of traffic (and a favorite of mine!) and FusionIQ, a software service that uses both fundamental and technical analysis. Over the years Barry and I have known each other, we have become quite good friends. If you ever get a chance to catch us on a panel together, you are in for some fun, as we tend to go at it and each other just for the heck of it, while trying to share the little that we have learned along the way. Barry is all over financial TV and now has a weekly column in the Washington Post. And now, let me turn it over to Barry.