The Muddle Through Economy

The task I face every week as I begin this column is to interpret the tea leaves so we can get some glimpse into the future of the economy, and thereby get an idea of how to invest our hard-earned money. In theory, the direction of the economy (both local and global) will have a direct influence on stocks, bonds and other investments.

The tea leaves I read are the hundreds of pages of data, stories, articles and reports I sort through each week, letting them swirl around in my mind and seeing what settles out. This week I am going to focus on what I see as a growing disconnect between consumer and investor expectations on the one hand and the historical ability of the economy (and the markets) to actually meet those expectations. Let's look at…