Thoughts from the Frontline

The X Factor

By John Mauldin

July 25, 2002

More Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics
Trust the System, Luke
The X Factor
The Nigerian Connection
Short Selling Rally
Retirement and Demographics
And Much More!

Today we look at why oil prices are likely heading down, how brilliant economists come to the wrong conclusions and of course a few comments on the recent market action. Let's jump right in.

More Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Since I criticized the trade policies of President Bush last week, maybe I can work up enough nerve to critique a recent article by one of the more well-known economists in the country, Arthur Laffer, of Laffer Curve fame.

Last week, there was a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece by Laffer which was so over the top in its market analysis that I found it hard to believe the Journal would publish it. Except for the fact that it was written by someone as famous (and brilliant) as Laffer, I doubt it would have seen the light of day. I hesitate to critique someone of Laffer's stature, but as I mused on it…

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