Thoughts from the Frontline

The Yield Curve,  Part 7

By John Mauldin

April 30, 2004

The Yield Curve, Part 7
An Artificial Curve?
The Potential Economy
Coincidentally Lagging Indicators
The Sox are in Town

This week we look at the probability of a future recession raining on the current economic parade, looking at two indicators which offer insight into our future. I further explore the interest rate environment and the risks associated with Fed policy. There is a lot to cover, and it should be interesting reading.

But first, let me modestly note that my book, Bull's Eye Investing , debuted this week at #13 on the New York Times Miscellaneous List (investment, business and how to books) and #14 on the Wall Street Journal Business books list (right there on section 4, page 6 in today's Journal). Since the book is not officially to be published until next week, I take that to be a good sign. The book is shipping from the on-line stores (I have heard from many of you who have gotten their copies) and is in most bookstores nationwide. If your local store does not have it, kindly suggest they order a few copies.

I received a rather pleasant surprise last week, as Motley Fool writer Matt Richey wrote a rather enthusiastic review of Bull's Eye Investing. Quote Matt: "This is a must-read book for serious students of investing. Broadly speaking, the first 15 chapters are on trends in the stock market and economy, while the final nine chapters offer investment strategies for successfully navigating those trends."

You can read the review and some of his…

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