Thoughts from the Frontline

Twist and Shout?

September 17, 2011

Choose your language

What in the wide, wild world of monetary policy is the Fed doing, giving essentially unlimited funds to European banks? What are they seeing that we do not? And is this a precursor to even more monetary easing at this next week’s extraordinary FOMC meeting, expanded to a two-day session by Bernanke? Can we say “Operation Twist?” Or maybe “Twist and Shout?” Not many charts this week, but some things to think about.

But first, I have had readers ask me about my endorsement of Lifeline Skin Care and whether I was still pleased. Quickly, let me say that I am more than pleased. I have not mentioned it recently, as the company had to deal with supply issues (partially, from too many orders, which is a good thing) but those have been handled. I read a lot of positive letters from people who use the cream with excellent results. I can clearly see a difference in my own skin. If you use it correctly you will get results

But a very interesting endorsement came by way of my cynical daughter Tiffani, who was in Europe recently for 6 weeks. She did not take her Lifeline with her but used another (very) high-end product. She came back and was complaining about how her skin looked. After switching back to Lifeline for two weeks, she notes that she can already see a difference, and the “feel” is improving. Many of the re-orders are coming from men (which is not surprising, as the bulk of initial orders came from my readers), almost the reverse of industry standards.

Basically, Lifeline uses patented stem-cell technology in its cream, and it promotes a visible rejuvenation of the skin in about 3-6 weeks (depending on the individual’s skin, how often you use it, etc.) I encourage readers who are (ahem) of a certain age, or simply want to keep their skin looking younger, to click on the link to see a new, very short video; and if you like, you can order at the website. I and a number of friends are enthusiastic users. If you are interested in your appearance, you might want to consider becoming a Lifeline user. And you can use the code WAVE1 to get a $40 discount! www.lifelineskincare.com/page/46/Video.html. Now to the letter!

Bailing Out Europe’s Banks

Yesterday the Fed announced that along with the central banks of Great Britain, Japan, and Switzerland it would provide dollars to European banks that have lost their ability to access dollar capital markets (basically each other and US-based money market funds that are slowly letting their holdings of European bank commercial paper decrease as it comes due. And if they are “rolling it over,” they are buying very short-term…

Discuss This

6 comments

We welcome your comments. Please comply with our Community Rules.

Comments

David Champeau

Sep. 20, 2011, 4:30 p.m.

John,

A bit flippant to say “Making the safe assumption that the Fed knows how to hedge currency risk (fairly easy), the only risk is if the ECB and the euro somehow ceased to exist.”

Since the monetary system is a “closed system” we cannot hedge away risk. Someone has to take the other side. So if the Fed were to hedge 100s of billions of Federal Reserve Notes, they would be adding to the systemic risk that is now already in the red zone.

Think it through a little further.

David Champeau

Carl Bechgaard

Sep. 18, 2011, 4:54 p.m.

Excellent letter. Enjoyed that it dealt primarily with thoughts rather than with numbers and graphs.
Carl Bechgaard

Michael Gorback

Sep. 18, 2011, 12:05 p.m.

Credit contraction = deflationary. We are already in deflation in that sense. If Gross is correct then twist will exacerbate that.

Why does someone who rubs elbows with Senators and rents villas in Italy need to shop car loans?

Tjemme van der Meer

Sep. 18, 2011, 11:19 a.m.

Allow me two small comments on Europe and a comment on the Fed-ECB swap-transaction:

As for Europe:
(*) It seems to me that you are overstating the potential impact of a Greek default on European banks (http://www.scribd.com/doc/64357091/Goldman-Europe-Banks).
(*) It seems to me that you are overstating the leverage of European banks vs American banks. There is an accounting issue playing up (http://www.risk.net/risk-magazine/feature/2028051/proposals-balance-sheet-netting-spark-worries-leverage-ratios).

As for the swap transaction:
(*) The alternative for the ECB is not to go into the market to buy dollars. It only needs to go into the market to borrow dollars. The simultaneous promise to sell dollars in the future neutralises the currency exposure.
(*) It is not very meaningful to suggest that the Fed is currently buying EUR that it needs to hedge. By the nature of the swap, the Fed has already sold the EUR forwards against a fixed exchange rate (to the ECB).

RICHARD LOWE

Sep. 17, 2011, 6:15 p.m.

Do you know about the FFB? Read this - http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/solyndras-whorehouse-lender?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+zerohedge/feed+(zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline,+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero).

Craig Cheatum

Sep. 17, 2011, 4:28 p.m.

It has occurred to me that the consumer may not be in a position to contribute in a big way for a very long time.  Not just job concerns but house values.  Bankruptcy may be a viable alternative in roughly half of the states, but the other half are recourse states.  A global solution might be a measured return to mark-to-market accounting of mortgage backed securities, of say 10% a year minimum until back to market accounting values.  It seems like mortgage holders would then be forced to refinance at current rates and valuations to maintain balance sheet requirements, and free up consumers in a meaningful way.  They would be liable for losses instead of taxpayers, and they aren’t lending anyway.  Some kind of explicit government guarantee might be needed for the very best new home borrowers.

Craig Cheatum
Houston, Texas