Thoughts from the Frontline

Where is the ECB Printing Press?

November 12, 2011

Choose your language

Europe remains the focus of markets, and rightly so. But the picture is not as clear as one would like. Different analysts point to different problems – if only this one problem could be solved, then all this would go away, they tend to say. Sadly, it is not one problem but three that must be solved, and none of them is easy. In today’s letter I try and offer a basic primer on the problems facing Europe. My challenge to myself is to do it in a short piece rather than the book-length tome it could easily become. Thus, in the pursuit of brevity, we will not be as in-depth as usual, but I think it helps us to step back a few feet and look at the larger picture before we focus on minutiae.

Where Can I Find €3 Trillion?

First, for the record, the European issue is not a crisis of confidence, as Merkel and Sarkozy, et al., keep telling us. It is structural. And until the structural issues are dealt with, the problems will not be solved.

The first problem facing Europe is the glaring sore thumb: there is simply too much sovereign debt in Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Belgium. That…

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Viking Vikingsson

Nov. 20, 2011, 11:38 a.m.

John you have been in my mailbox for quite some time now and I always looking forward to read it. I only wonder why you do not see the reason for Goldman Sachs and the “moneychangers of the world”- to put not only Europe but your country in the state of emergency. Money is lent that has not been labourred for and the system of loans as a credit system by the banks has made it possible. Money that has not been earnt but made out of nothing. Easiest way to handle this is that since it is made up money you can just stop paying any interest and even pay back the loans. Insted wolves out of the wolf den of Goldman Sachs that has already full power of your governement now ” become” Diktators of Europe. Countries like Italy and Greece so far got their share of â??bankinfluenseâ?. Those countries gold and silver is their main consern and eager to get for the new moneysystem that they have been planning for some time now.

Victor Swanson

Nov. 15, 2011, 1:36 p.m.

“As a way to think about it, the US fought its most bloody war over the question of whether or not to remain a union.”

John, I love you, but where were your editors on this one?  The U.S. civil war was fought over the question of whether or not any given state that had ratified the Constitution could secede from the U.S. against the backdrop of the Constitution’s silence on the subject (poor drafting, in my opinion).

Alan Harris

Nov. 14, 2011, 4:56 p.m.

A single expulsion would be a disaster for the whole EU as, as soon as any country’s finances looked even slightly iffy, the market would exit rapido assuming expulsion was inevitable. It only takes one card to cause the whole house to fall.
So there are only two choices: save Greece at all costs via continent wide austerity/Euro devaluation (and hope there’s still time to avoid Armageddon)....Double VAT/sales tax on all non essentials. In itself this will not affect exports, but will have a devastating effect on both home grown and imported ‘luxuries’,
or accept the inevitability of collapse today…abandon the Euro and, at best, return to a simple EFTA with local, de-valuable currencies.
The REAL problem has always been political dithering in an attempt to preserve individual national interests. It was never a true Union….it was an association of individual self serving countries. They had the time and money to sort this out once upon a time, but its probably too late now. The only question is how much more damage will be done while they continue to procrastinate. Merkle et al seem determined to go down with the ship….the question is, how long till their people vote with their wallets and sack them. But Merkle knows that if a single Greece is allowed to go down, it will lead to mass economic migration. Each country will be forced to close its borders : Protectionism wars ...... perhaps even physical or civil wars, will ensue. It only needs one new ‘Hitler’ to incite their masses to ‘persecute the migrants that are stealing your jobs and damaging our nation’.
Or will we see PIIGS fly first?

waqar yousuf shaikh

Nov. 13, 2011, 11:33 a.m.

dear john:
it looks pretty scary.but the market is behaving very positively.it has gained substatially inspite of all this.so what is the smart money thinking? is it that with decline of europe,usa will hv better growth?with europe purchasing power reduced,commodities will be cheaper and allover lesser inflation so better opportunities for others?probably world has already factored in the reduced european consumption and smart money has assessed that world will go on with european reduced consumption and will be better for other countries?do you think all this increased leverage 3 tr euros or so will hv positive effect?what is smart money thinking and why market behavingg so strong?
waqar

Fred Pollack

Nov. 13, 2011, 9:56 a.m.

Since you are going to see Mike Roizen at Cleveland Clinic’s Wellness Center, I would also encourage you to visit with Caldwell Esselstyn, also of the Center.  Dr. Esselstyn was one of the doctors that got Bill Clinton to switch a heart-healthy plant-based diet 1 1/2 years ago.

There is an excellent documentary that I highly recommend:  “Forks over Knives”.  This was in theaters in May 2011.   The DVD version has a few short extra interviews that are worth watching.  For more info: http://forksoverknives.com/.  Doctors Esselstyn, Campbell, McDougall, and Barnard are on the DVD. 
Suggest you watch Sanjay Gupta’s CNN special, “The Last Heart Attack”, it aired on Saturday (September 3rd).  Bill Clinton and Dr. Caldwell Esselstyn interviewed.  Clinton has been on the same diet as I am for the last 18 months.  It is available to watch online now: http://edition.cnn.com/video/?/video/podcasts/gupta/site/2011/08/29/sgmd.last.heart.attack.cnn

For a “cliff-notes” written version of the show: http://www.happyhealthylonglife.com/happy_healthy_long_life/2011/08/the-last-heart-attack.html

A good summary of Esselstyn’s views and research is found in this article (published in a 2001 issue of “Preventive Cardiology”): http://www.heartattackproof.com/resolving_cade.htm.
Personal story. For the last 2 1/2 years, my wife, Iris and I eat a low-fat, whole-food, plant-based (i.e. vegan) diet.  The low-fat aspect also means no oils.  We use “nuts” as a condiment.  This is the same diet that Bill Clinton is now on.

My health journey is summarized at http://fredpollack.wordpress.com/health-journey/, which was written about 1 1/2 years ago. 11 years ago, I weighed 230 pounds, had high cholesterol, high blood pressure, and sleep apnea.  I am 63, weigh 153 pounds, 10% body-fat, 5’10”.  My 5K (3.1 miles) time on a treadmill (1% incline) is 30 minutes.  I’m not on any medications.  Total cholesterol is 145, LDL is 65, HDL is 63, and Triglycerides are 86.  
My motivation to go on this low-fat vegan diet: I have a lot of plaque build-up in my arteries (a calcium score of 435).  I was well on my way to getting a heart-attack or stroke.  Research shows in medical journals (done by Ornish and Esselstyn) that this diet will reduce the probability of death from CVD (cardiovascular disease) to almost 0.

From Dr. Michael F. Roizen’s The RealAge Diet: Make Yourself Younger with What You Eat. â??People who consume saturated, four-legged fat have a shorter life span and more disability at the end of their lives. Animal products clog your arteries, zap your energy and slow down your immune system. Meat eaters also experience accelerated cognitive and sexual dysfunction at a younger age.â?

Edmundo Ventolera

Nov. 13, 2011, 6:33 a.m.

Hmmm ...

Your lucidity is the perfect aid (and stimulus) to reflection.  Macro first ...

If the problems are getting worse in Europe, with Germany running out of headroom too, with prompt action needed if a world crisis is to be averted, is it merely an Euro issue, or is there a global shortage of liquidity?

Why is more liquidity needed - did growth outstrip the supply, or has liquidity been sequestered somewhere, to emerge again as a superfluity when the deficiency is replenished? 

If leverage money was fueling growth, that is where the leverage money is now.  Recovering it would be a growth reversal act; better, surely, to officially issue it.

Then the micro ....

The over-leveraging banks were in pursuit of profits.  When a body that generates no wealth makes a profit, it does so at the expense of wealth generators somewhere.  Since it looks as though at least some of the banks involved have now lost it all, who currently holds the benefit of those profits, and which wealth generators did they come from in the first place?

How does the scale of these profits compare with the liquidity deficit - could there be a significant sequestration issue?

Then the morality ...

Should the new money be printed by the economies currently holding those benefits, or by the losers, or by the economies that have grown most?

How should we deal with sequestration?

Nelson Swanberg

Nov. 13, 2011, 1:29 a.m.

The euro zone is going to need one national all powerful bank that determines the path out of the mess the banksters made. Banksters get a bonus as soon as the profits from a perfroming loan start to be booked. Yet they suffer no consequneces if the loans fail in the furutre. Anybody else see something wrong with this system? The european leaderships knows that for europe to compete there will need to be a United States of Europe or they will all go down the flusher together. The people just will not admit it - yet.

Mike Hardy

Nov. 13, 2011, 1:20 a.m.

That was a good high-level summary of the Euro crisis. Two points:

1. The most obvious solution was not (directly) mentioned; over Christmas & New Year Germany ups sticks and leaves the Euro, returning to the Deutshmark. Sure it will have to re-capitalize its banks, but that’s by far the best solution IMO.

2. The article twice mentioned the word ‘pepression’. Is ‘depression’ now a swear word?!?

thomas brady

Nov. 13, 2011, 12:32 a.m.

Hello;

there is nothing to admire about the commitment to remain in the EU. The individuals who are so enamored of the EU are a minority of elitists/authoritarians who have no interest in democracy or individual rights. It seems there main concern is to maintain there own positions in the EU bureaucracy.

They are elitists of the worst sort. The EU sgould have never happened in the first place and though it will be painful, temporarily, for the greeks and italians and spaniards, .... to return to their own currencies, in the long run it will be better for the people. Not so great for the EU elites.

If this were put to a referendum the people in these countries would overwhelmingly reject the EU project. This is what the elites are so afraid of.

I don’t understand how you can support such anti-democratic individuals.

Stephen Mapes

Nov. 12, 2011, 10:38 p.m.

You have been very bearish on Europe and the US and even China (with a RE bubble building) suggesting a new recession is quite likely. So could you please explain why the US market continues to move up(since the Oct lows) in spite of this macro information. Is it simply, that money is leaving Europe and coming to the US as more safe than Europe or is there still under value in the US market? I have moved mostly to cash as the US market has moved up and now have no idea what to do with it.