Thoughts from the Frontline

Why Demographics Tell Us the Market Will Fall

December 20, 2002

As we come to the close of the year, my Christmas gift to you is an analysis of some very interesting research on the connection between demographics and the stock market. It falls in line with much of our recent investigations, and adds a further piece to the puzzle as to where the eventual bottom of the stock market lies and when we might get there. For most investors, knowing where the stock market is going and when it will get there might be useful. Then I show you how you can get involved in the War on Terror from the comfort of your living room, while saving lives and helping the good guys.

I have written about the connections between age demographics of the population and the stock market on several occasions. I do not buy into Harry Dent's theory he espoused in his book The Roaring 2000's that the stock market is going up until the Baby Boomers start to retire in 2007. He makes connections between charts and numbers that I do not feel are warranted.

But he is certainly not wrong that…

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