Thoughts from the Frontline

Will You Be Able To Retire?

By John Mauldin

November 15, 2002

Will You Be Able To Retire?
Fantasy Island
Social Security Solutions?
Be Honest With Yourself
Deflation? Inflation? Gold?
Harry Dent Is Wrong
Houston, We Have A Party

Today we turn our attention to the question of retirement: Will the Boomer Generation be able to retire on time? Will Social Security go bankrupt? Is Harry Dent in his book The Roaring 2000s right when he asserts that we will have a boom until approximately 2008-9 because Boomers are saving and spending? And then watch as things go bust (an actual depression) because Boomers start selling stocks and retiring?

We are going to examine a remarkable paper by Rob Arnott (Chairman of First Quadrant) and Anne Casscells (of Aetos Capital). Arnott is circulating the paper privately prior to its publication in a financial journal. He has graciously given me permission to discuss it. Its long term implications are very critical for all of us to understand, especially the Boomer Generation, of which I am a part, and which makes up a large portion…

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