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Outside the Box, October 2005

Special Report: The Bird Flu and You

October 31, 2005

This week's essay from is from one of my favorite groups, Strategic Forecasting, Inc, or Stratfor for short. The company is headquartered in Austin, TX with a satellite office in Washington, DC and intelligence sources from around the world. Stratfor focuses on providing corporations, governments and individuals strategic intelligence on the economic, political and security issues that will affect them.

Stratfor produced a special report on October 24, 2005 addressing the risks...

The New Inflation and Lessons for Greenspan’s Replacement

October 24, 2005

For the last two weeks in my regular Thoughts from the Frontlines, we have been looking at inflation. In keeping with that theme, we turn to today's note from Stephen Roach, Chief Economist of Morgan Stanley, who talks about the nature of what he calls the New Inflation. I think this is one of the more important insights Roach has had among a career with many of them. We close with a few paragraphs on Alan Greenspan from Martin Wolf, who writes for the Financial Times in the US...

Quarterly Review and Outlook

October 17, 2005

This week's letter is once again from two of my favorite economists, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management Company in Austin, Texas. They specialize in management of fixed income portfolios for large institutional clients by setting long-term investment strategies based on economic analysis. They have been one of the most successful bond managers in the country. (I have no affiliation with them.) I eagerly read all of their writing and analysis, and...

Rodney’s Ravings

October 10, 2005

A reader forwarded the following article to me last week and suggested it might make a good Outside the Box. This week's article comes from Rodney Dickens, Head of Research for ASB Bank, New Zealand and I thank him for letting me share his thoughts with my readers. Rodney has been analyzing the fixed income markets for two decades and has some insights into the current trends in global interest rates.

Rodney refers to the US Fed as the "global custodian of inflation" and finds an...

Waiting For Average

October 3, 2005

This week's letter is from my good friend Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research in Dallas. Ed helped co-author a couple of Chapters in my book "Bull's Eye Investing" and that inspired him to write his own book. Ed's must read book, in my opinion, is called "Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles."

In this article Ed lays out why boomers will not see the average market returns of the past in their future. The "Buy and Hold" crowd will point to Ibbotson...