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    Outside the Box, March 2006

    Bleak US Economic Outlook?

    March 27, 2006

    This week's letter is from Paul Kasriel of The Northern Trust Company. Kasriel is Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research, responsible for producing the Corporation's economic and interest rate forecasts.

    The US consumer has kept the economy strong, but can they maintain the current trend? Kasriel has assembled a long list of economic numbers and asks the readers to look at the data and make their own determination on our economic future. He lays out a...

    Perils of a New Globalization

    March 20, 2006

    Two week's ago in my Friday letter, Thoughts From the Frontline, I wrote about the Dubai ports situation, Smoot-Hawley, globalization and protectionism. Today we look at two commentaries by Stephen Roach, Chief Economist of Morgan Stanley. The first was from Monday, March 13 and the follow up was on Friday, March 17.

    Roach explores the newest data on trade flows and weighs in with his view of protectionism. Back in the 1930s politicians were trying to protect manufacturing jobs,...

    China Visit Report

    March 13, 2006

    We once again turn our focus on China. Simon Hunt has been visiting China for many years and offers us his latest insight from a recent visit. Many analysts forecast the recent past into the future and the outlook on china is no different, but Simon says this is incorrect and China is about to go through a major change. As he sees it, China is changing its focus from growth at any price to one that might be a bit more rationalized.

    This is a very important point and why this...

    A Look Inside The Housing Bubble

    March 6, 2006

    This week's letter is from Paul Kasriel of The Northern Trust Company. Kasriel is Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research, responsible for producing the Corporation's economic and interest rate forecasts. Not long ago Paul had a contest to try and come up with a new name for his Positive Economic Commentary and The Econtrarian: Your Alternative to the Econsensus won out.

    In this edition he turns his focus on the housing market. Many are forecasting continued...