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    Outside the Box, July 2006

    The Absolute Return Letter - July 2006

    July 31, 2006

    My good friends and London associates, Absolute Return Partners, have recently released their monthly letter. The letter consists of two essays with the first by ARP President Niels Jensen and the second by partner Jan Vilhelmsen. Given that the equity sell-off around the world has been far more dramatic than in the US, I thought it might be useful to get a view from "over the pond."

    Niels comments on the correlation between commodities and stocks and takes a look at what history can teach us...

    Quarterly Review and Outlook: Second Quarter 2006

    July 24, 2006

    This week's letter is once again from two of my favorite economists, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management Company in Austin, Texas. They specialize in management of fixed income portfolios for large institutional clients by setting long-term investment strategies based on economic analysis. They have been one of the most successful bond managers in the country. (I have no affiliation with them.) I eagerly read all of their writing and analysis, and find it to be...

    Mid-East Update: Confusion Before the Storm

    July 17, 2006

    In my Friday letter, Thoughts from the Frontline, I wrote, "This week's events have made it clear why as investors you need to be able to get a handle on world events." The turmoil in the Middle East has only intensified since then, making the markets start off the week in the midst of geopolitical uncertainty.

    I think you will find it interesting to read today's note from Stratfor on the Mid-East situation. Strategic Forecasting, Inc, or Stratfor for short as I noted last Friday is my single...

    Shedding Light On Problems Facing The Fed

    July 10, 2006

    So exactly how far is the Fed going to go? Are they done? Perhaps another raise in August? Could that not even be enough? These are all questions of uncertainty that have the faces of investors looking more puzzled than ever over Fed policy. In my Friday letter I commented on how the Fed is concerned about inflation, and how it is still making them uncomfortable pegged in the high end of their range. In this week's "Outside the Box," Paul McCulley, to much surprise, confesses that he wears...

    The Limits To Learning

    July 3, 2006

    This week we look at mistakes and why we don't learn from them, at least not initially. Good friend James Montier explores the limits to learning we all have and offers some help on how to overcome them. Investors are constantly facing these challenges against their own biases when making sound decisions.

    James is the Director of Global Strategy at Dresdner Kleinwort Watterstein, a London and Frankfurt based investment bank. He is also a prolific writer and author of the book "Behavioral...