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    Outside the Box, May 2011

    Visegrad: A New European Military Force

    May 27, 2011

    Today, I'm sending you a week-old article. Fear not, dear reader—though the news peg is several days gone, the significance is historic... and when this author says "pay attention," I do. Today's piece is from my friend George Friedman, founder & CEO of STRATFOR.

    During the week of Palestinian protests and the IMF scandal, George chose to write about an obscure decision by Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary to form a battlegroup. Though you may wonder why, we're all about to care...

    Macro E.U. — D.O.A.

    May 24, 2011

    I am attending the Global Interdependence Center’s latest conference here in Philadelphia, writing you from the Admiral’s Club on my way to Boston. The chatter last night at dinner and between sessions was focused on the risks in Europe. I did an interview with Aaron Task on Yahoo’s Daily Ticker, where I noted that European leaders are starting to use the word contained when they talk about Greece. Shades of Bernanke and subprime. This too will not be contained.

    And that brings us to this...

    Still Home Sick

    May 17, 2011

    Everyone is curious about the state of housing in the US. My friend Gary Shilling recently did a lengthy issue on housing as it is today. I asked him to give us a shorter version for Outside the Box, and he graciously did. And you want to know what Gary thinks, because he is one of the guys who really got it right early, from subprime to the bubble and the price collapse, and has been right all along. No one is better. This very readable edition is full of charts and fast reasoning.

    ...

    U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue

    May 12, 2011

    A true understanding of geopolitics (and therefore geopolitical risk) is an essential piece of the puzzle in managing investments wisely. You're bright people, I know. If you need to know what's going on in China to inform your investments, you sit down in front of the keyboard, and after a few choice web searches, and a half a day's worth of reading, you would be able to formulate an informed and concise summary – and use it to make investment choices.

    There's an easier, quicker, and smarter...

    Does Unreal GDP Drive Our Policy Choices?

    May 9, 2011

    I am back from Rob Arnott’s conference in Laguna Beach, and I must confess that if I had attended it before I wrote last week’s e-letter I might have had lower odds on the US political class solving the debt crisis, absent a real economic crisis forcing them to. There were several presentations that made the problems quite clear. It remains a tough issue.

    This week’s Outside the Box is a recent white paper by Rob, where he argues that the traditional way we look at GDP is flawed, because it...

    Restoring Fiscal Sanity in the United States: A Way Forward

    May 2, 2011

    One of the great privileges of traveling and speaking as I do is getting to meet a wide variety of very interesting people. Of late, I have become friends with David Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, who is now crisscrossing the country warning of the deficit crisis. It is a message that my book Endgame resonates with. If we do not bring the deficit down below the growth rate of nominal GDP, we become Greece. We hit an economic wall and everything collapses. It will be a real and...