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    Outside the Box, October 2012

    Memo to Central Banks: You’re debasing more than our currency

    October 26, 2012

    I can only pass on Societe Generale’s work to you once in a while, but the piece for today’s Outside the Box is important enough that its author, Dylan Grice, worked hard to convince his bosses to let me share it with you. Dylan is one of my favorite investments analysts, as well as just an all-around nice guy.

    In a change from his usual fun-loving demeanor, Dylan issues a serious warning here.

    I am more worried than I have ever been about the clouds gathering today (which may be the most...

    Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook

    October 20, 2012

    The Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook is one of the cornerstones of my reading on where the economy is headed. Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt do a masterful job of turning data points into cogent, well-argued themes.

    This month they waste no time in dissecting the Fed’s recent move to QE3 and similar efforts in Europe, arriving at the conclusion that “While prices for risk assets have improved, governments have not been able to address underlying debt imbalances. Thus, nothing suggests...

    A Little Chronic Deflation

    October 13, 2012

    One of the questions I (and other analysts) get asked most frequently is whether I think there is deflation or inflation in store for the US. My quick answer is "Yes." A brief answer is that we are in a deflationary period and have been for over 30 years, but like all cycles it will come to an end. A great deal of the "when" depends on how the US deals with its deficit following the election. If we put the US on a realistic glide path to a balanced budget (over time) then that...

    When Career Risk Reigns

    October 5, 2012

    We have entered an era of increasing correlation among what were once considered diversified investment classes. That would not be so bad, but overall returns have been reduced as well, almost across the board. As the song says, “Nowhere to run and nowhere to hide.” (For the younger generation, listen to the far superior version on YouTube, which was the original by Martha Reeves and the Vandellas, and not the noise of Korn or Caliban.)

    This week’s Outside the Box takes us on a tour of...