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    Outside the Box, February 2013

    The Keynesian Depression

    February 22, 2013

    In today’s Outside the Box, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Funds, regales us with the not-always-happy history of Keynesian economics – we did what he said when we had to, but not always when we should have. Shoving fiscal and monetary stimulus down the throat of a recession is well and good, but how about the part where we’re supposed to be fiscally conservative during boom times? “What, raise taxes? No thank you!”

    The upshot, as Minerd reminds us, is that “As a...

    Scrambling for Returns

    February 19, 2013

    In this special edition of Outside the Box, World Money Analyst contributor Ankur Shah digs in his heels to help us all stay uphill from the slow-motion, jumbled landslide of bond yields and equity returns. Putting some solid analysis under our feet, he leads us onward and upward, dodging dislodged corporate-earnings boulders, relaying warnings shouted back by Head Sherpa Bill Gross, guiding us up the narrow but rock-solid ridge of dividend yields – and what’s that we see glimmering up there,...

    Investing in a Low-Growth World

    February 16, 2013

    The jury – unless you are the Fed and Ben Bernanke or the Congressional Budget Office, which cannot make lower growth assumptions without really blowing their deficit projections out of the water – is pretty well in on GDP growth: it’s going lower. Ed Easterling and I wrote a recent Thoughts from the Frontline on multiple pieces of research suggesting slower future growth. We asked the question, “So what about stock prices; will they follow suit?” Our thought was that, over time, they would....

    2013 Investment Themes

    February 9, 2013

    A year ago, Dr. Gary Shilling published the influential book The Age of Deleveraging, which followed his earlier work, Deflation (1998); and in today’s Outside the Box he updates us on his thinking.

    Deleveraging of the financial and household sectors has created a terrific macroeconomic undertow since 2008, eroding growth. Gary argues (against many of the talking heads in the mainstream TV world) that the deleveraging process for both these sectors has several years to run before it returns...

    US Private-Sector Deleveraging: Where Are We?

    February 1, 2013

    I was just in Greece with Christian Menegatti, and we had a good conversation about the piece he has sent along as today’s OTB. The case Christian and his coauthor David Nowakowski lay out regarding an incipient turnaround in US deleveraging (and therefore in economic growth prospects) is in some ways truly outside the box – I certainly wouldn’t call it the consensus view at this point. But they make the argument about as strongly as it can be made; so, if nothing else, they give us a solid...