Outside the Box, July 2015

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook – Second Quarter 2015

July 22, 2015

In today’s Outside the Box, my good friend Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management reminds us that since the 1990-91 recession, the 30-year Treasury bond yield has dropped from 9% to 3%, a downward move nearly identical to the decline in the rate of inflation, which fell from just over 6% in 1990 to 0% today. Therefore, Lacy says, “(I)t was the backdrop of shifting inflationary circumstances that once again determined the trend in long-term Treasury bond yields.”

During that 25-year...

Xi’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Key to China’s Prospects

July 1, 2015

George Magnus is one of the most influential economists in the world today. From his position as chief economist at UBS for a number of years, he enjoyed a front-row seat to growth miracles, credit booms, and financial crises in major economies around the world and is widely credited with identifying the trigger points that eventually led to the global financial crisis in 2008.

Today, he works as an associate at Oxford University’s China Center, a senior economic adviser at UBS, and an...