Outside the Box, December 2015

The Fed Awakens

December 16, 2015

I got the following from a friend at J.P. Morgan just a few minutes ago. You might have had something like it hit your inbox as well.

WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve officials said Wednesday they expect a more gradual pace of short-term interest rate increases in coming years than they did three months ago.

They also tweaked very modestly their views on the outlook for the economy, according to forecasts released after the conclusion of the Fed's two-day policy meeting. Officials made small...

Origins and Strategy of the Islamic State

December 14, 2015

Today’s Outside the Box is from my good friend George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures. George, who founded the well-known Stratfor, is one of the world’s top geopolitical forecasters. I’m very excited to welcome him as a Contributing Editor for Mauldin Economics.

Starting today and every Monday, we’ll publish a regular feature from George called This Week in Geopolitics. In this weekly letter written for Mauldin Economics, George will highlight the top international events that investors and...

Of Central Bankers, Monkeys, and John Law

December 9, 2015

Back in April, my good friend Charles Gave, Chairman of Gavekal, penned a short but brilliant piece in which he likened central bankers to a bunch of monkeys in a cage. In the unforgettable “Of Central Bankers, Monkeys and John Law,” he proceeded to run down the parallels between France’s 18th-century “Mississippi Bubble” and the situation in the Eurozone today.

Now Charles has given us a follow-up, titled “The Apex of Market Stupidity,” in which he regales us with a sardonic but spot-on recap...

Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

December 2, 2015

I’m going to offer something a little different in this week’s Outside the Box. Nate Silver has consistently been one of the best political analysts of the past 12 years. I wasn’t terribly enamored of his move from the New York Times to ESPN – to go back to covering sports rather than politics – but he still covers politics over at 538.

This past week he wrote an article called “Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls.” It’s not that he’s got an anti-Trump bias, but he points...