Outside the Box, January 2016

The Debate Over Renminbi Policy

January 27, 2016

Longtime readers know how much I respect and rely on the Gavekal group for thought-provoking research. They have a truly unique organization, one in which even junior analysts can question conventional wisdom and ask uncomfortable questions. Moreover, they aren’t afraid to let the world (or at least their clients) see their disagreements.

Today I have a recent piece in which Louis Gave jumps into the team’s debate over renminbi policy. In true Gavekal style, he openly questions what others in...

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook – 4Q2015

January 20, 2016

Recession or no recession for the US in 2016? I’m looking at what a lot of people think about that question, and my good friend Lacy Hunt’s take on it has really added to the clarity of my own thinking. In today’s Outside the Box, Lacy focuses first on the factors that made 2015 a disappointing year for the economy, and he points out that we were losing momentum as the year closed.

At this point we have to ask, “Why?” Why, after seven years of post-recession central bank stimulus, a doubling...

Chinese Sunset

January 13, 2016

The jet lag from flying back from Hong Kong on Sunday is just about gone, but I’m still deep in thought about what I learned. As I said in last week’s letter, the overall tone on China was bearish for the group of very sophisticated investors I met with. There was particular mention of the quantity of currency flowing out of China and lots discussion about how that was happening. Suffice it to say that the wealthy in China have ways to move money.

I mentioned that fact at lunch today with a...

What Is Really Bugging the Market

January 6, 2016

My good friend David Rosenberg, Chief Economist at Gluskin Sheff, has long been one of the biggest draws at my annual Strategic Investment Conference. I had always taken him for a “permabear.” Then three years ago, Dave shocked us by announcing in no uncertain terms – in his usual fire-hose delivery of hard data and brilliant analysis – that he had turned decidedly bullish. His call was of course spot on.  

Dave will once again kick things off at this year’s SIC, and you’ll want to be there to...