Outside the Box, April 2016

Flawed Assumptions and Grand Experiments

April 20, 2016

Over the last few years, I have from time to time had the real pleasure of being in the presence of Lakshman Achuthan, Chief Operations Officer for the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a rather serious team of economists who spend their time researching economic cycles, especially those around recessions. They are known for having forward-looking models rather than always looking in the rearview mirror.

Every time I get around Lakshman I walk away impressed. And I always make a mental note...

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook – 1Q2016

April 13, 2016

You often hear me harping on the dangers of too much debt, and I keep my eyes peeled for significant work that backs up my concerns. In today’s Outside the Box good friend Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management gives us more ammunition to take on those who just don’t seem to get that the endless piling up of debt is not a sustainable way to run an economy.

The most striking feature of the US economy’s performance in 2015, according to Lacy, was a massive advance in nonfinancial debt...

Thrivers and Strugglers: A Growing Economic Divide

April 6, 2016

I am on yet another plane and reading an analysis of the growing wealth and income divide. The data in this week’s Outside the Box is fascinating – but sobering. I can kind of go along with some of the author’s ideas, but the Progressive cheerleader thing is a little disconcerting. That being said, the data squares with other work I have seen. The wealth and income divide is not 1%-99% but more like 25-75. There is a link to a book at the end for those who want a really deep dive.

This essay...